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Over the past two weeks, the Baltimore Ravens have made statement wins over two of the top teams in the NFL, and by doing so, have captured the top seed in the AFC playoff picture. Last week it was the San Francisco 49ers, the No. 1 seed in the NFC, on the road. In Week 17, it was the Miami Dolphins, who are currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a chance to win their division on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills.
Even though Week 17 provided more clarity to the AFC playoff picture, with two more teams clinching their playoff berths, there are still three spots remaining to officially be filled. That leaves Week 18 to decide the fates of five teams and determine one last division winner in the conference.
Let's now look at the AFC playoff picture with one week of the regular season remaining.
1st seed: Baltimore Ravens
With their win over the Dolphins, the Ravens wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff picture with just one week remaining. That means the Ravens will receive a bye in the first round with time to rest and heal up. In the win over Miami, Lamar Jackson was mesmerizing, having one of the best games of his career, and further propelling his way as the MVP of the league, like most were chanting in the Baltimore crowd on Sunday.
For the Ravens, they won't have to worry about anything when they face the Steelers on Sunday evening. That is unless they just want to make sure their division rivals are kept out of the playoffs.
2nd seed: Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins looked completely outmatched by the Ravens, losing 56-19, their third lowest scoring total of the season. What's worse besides the loss was losing linebacker Bradley Chubb for the season after he tore his ACL. Chubb suffered the injury when the Dolphins were already down 49-19 with 3:05 left in the game. Chubb's loss is another fatal one to an injury-riddled Miami defense.
With the Dolphins unable to pick up a win in Week 17, they now have to face a surging Bills team at home on Sunday Night Football with the AFC East title on the line.
3rd seed: Kansas City Chiefs
After losing four out of their last six games before Sunday's win over the Bengals, the Chiefs were reeling and finding themselves in a position unfamiliar compared to the last few seasons. Down 17-13 at the half, the Chiefs didn't allow the Bengals to score a single point in the second half but had to rely on Harrison Butker's four field goals (six total) to secure the win and the AFC West division overall.
When the season-schedulers made the Week 18 matchup for the Chiefs and Chargers, they probably had hoped it would have great playoff implications. That won't be the case with the Chargers eliminated from playoff contention and the Chiefs locking up the three-seed.
4th seed: Jacksonville Jaguars
All it took for the Jaguars to end their four-game losing streak was to face a two-win Carolina Panthers team. This Jaguars team is suffering from a plethora of injuries this season, including to quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who missed Week 17's game. CJ Beathard stepped in place for Lawrence, but it was Travis Etienne Jr. who carried the day, scoring twice and running for 102 yards.
With Jacksonville's latest skid over the last month, their playoff hopes come down to the last week, which could get dicey should they lose. A win over the Tennessee Titans and they're in as AFC South winners and will claim the No. 4 seed. But a loss presents a whole different set of scenarios, that would give either the Houston Texans or the Indianapolis Colts the division crown and leave the Jaguars hoping for the No. 7 seed. But they would need the Steelers to lose to the Ravens, plus the Broncos to lose to the Las Vegas Raiders and the Colts and Texans would have to not end in a tie.
5th seed: Cleveland Browns
It's all locked up for the Browns in the AFC playoff picture as they are officially in the postseason after they beat the New York Jets last Thursday night. It's uncertain if the city of Cleveland has stopped celebrating as of yet, but with the unlikely season they've had, having to rely on a resurging 38-year-old Joe Flacco to lead them — let them keep celebrating. The No. 5 seed is locked up for the Browns, so a regular season ender against the Cincinnati Bengals is irrelevant. For once, Browns fans don't have to worry and can just concentrate on the playoffs.
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6th seed: Buffalo Bills
The Bills have made a remarkable comeback this season when most were writing them off. They've lost key pieces of their defense, fired their offensive coordinator midseason, and yet here they are still fighting for the AFC East division crown.
It's pretty simple: win and they're in. But if they lose, they can still clinch a playoff berth if they tie in the game with the Dolphins; or the Steelers lose or tie with the Ravens; or the Jaguars lose or tie with the Titans; or the Colts and Texans tie.
7th seed: Indianapolis Colts
As mentioned, the Colts can still technically take the division title from the Jaguars should Jacksonville lose or tie with the Titans. If not, the Colts would have to tie with the Texans, coupled with a Jaguars loss.
8th seed: Houston Texans
With CJ Stroud back, the Texans have to like their chances better when they face the Colts at home. He helped beat the Raiders last week 23-20 to keep their playoff hopes alive and making the AFC South more competitive this season than many thought.
The Texans make their return to the playoffs with a win over the Colts. The other scenario is they would have to tie in the game against the Colts, plus a Jaguars loss and Steelers loss or tie with the Ravens.
9th seed: Pittsburgh Steelers
In the No. 9 seed currently, the Steelers have the most difficult path to getting to the postseason, even though Mike Tomlin will once again have Pittsburgh ending the season without a losing record.
The Steelers can punch their way into the AFC playoff picture by a few different scenarios: win over the Ravens plus Bills loss; win plus Jaguars loss or tie; win plus Colts-Texans tie; win plus Jaguars loss plus Colts-Texans doesn't end in a tie; or Jaguars loss plus Broncos win plus Colts-Texans doesn't end in a tie.
