The clock is ticking towards the start of the 2025 WNBA playoffs, and the Phoenix Mercury are in the thick of the race. A week prior, the Mercury clinched a playoff spot, as well as home court advantage.
However, the further they get into the playoffs, the more scenarios they don't want to find themselves in.
The Mercury facing the Dream would be the worst scenario
While the 0-3 season series record is concerning, there's more concern beneath the surface. The up-tempo against the slow-paced nature of the Atlanta Dream was in the latter's favor.
Even with explosive guards like Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray, the post-centric offense is one of the more efficient offenses in the league.
Both Howard and Gray are top-5 in 3-pointers made. However, there's an interesting statistic that contradicts the way they play, but also highlights it.
The Dream are second in offensive rating (108.1), yet have the second-slowest pace (93.04) in the WNBA. Their efficiency is something to be studied, and something that head coach Karl Smesko has implemented.
As a result, he is in the Coach of the Year discussions, and it's kept the Mercury in purgatory every time they've squared off.
Phoenix loves to get out in transition, and Atlanta stymies it every time they play. They'll play extremely slow, and in the half-court, leaving the Mercury to run a half-court offense that isn't consistent with their pace and space.
Not to mention, the Dream have the size to compete with players like Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and DeWanna Bonner. They have the physicality for the low-post, but are quick enough to operate on the perimeter.
If these two teams square off, it could be a quick and abrupt exit for the three-time WNBA champions.
The Las Vegas Aces' hot streak could stifle the Mercury
With no surprise, the Las Vegas Aces have finally found their groove. They've won 14 consecutive games, and superstar A'ja Wilson is cementing her name in the MVP conversation.
Other moves have factored into the lasting success. For instance, their head coach moved all-star Jewell Loyd to the bench. It's given Las Vegas an extra level and depth of scoring. Also, players like Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray found their rhythms once again.
On the X's and O's side, Hammon has limited the Mercury and head coach Nate Tibbetts. Some of it has been more intricate, such as switching nearly every pick-and-roll. Some of it has been exerting more effort on rebounds and second-chance buckets.
After all, Hammon is a championship-experienced coach. She knows what it takes to win a big game, a big series, and even the WNBA championship.
The advanced metrics show that the Aces aren't that royal, but the championship experience, superstar playmaking, and coaching acumen make them a dangerous threat.
The Minnesota Lynx and Mercury matchup is nearly identical
A 1-3 season series isn't thrilling, nor does it give much hope, especially when the win came due to a career-high scoring performance from Alyssa Thomas.
With the exception of the final encounter, every game was close.
Since the last game on July 16, both teams have looked drastically different. For Phoenix, Kahleah Copper came back from injury, and Napheesa Collier sustained a crucial ankle injury.
She's back and fully healthy, which makes the Mercury's job all the more intense.
For instance, Collier is in the MVP conversation, and for good reason. Her head coach, Cheryl Reeve, could also be in the Coach of the Year discussion for Minnesota's current 33-9 record. It's the best in franchise history, spearheaded by the MVP candidate.
Still, a win against the Lynx early in the season without Copper is encouraging. No matter what, Minnesota is the best team in the league without question.
The offensive, defensive, and +/- numbers lead the way. They have depth, experience, and the most important element in the playoffs: coaching.
Phoenix might have the star power to compete, but multiple counters, aggressive help-side rotations, heavy pressure on the ball, and excellent communication can negate any offensive strategy.
The Mercury might have the talent to compete, but the team-first approach on both sides, mixed with the championship experience, could be the deciding factor if these teams square off.
