Team Mexico squares off with Team Japan in the semifinals of the World Baseball Classic! First pitch is slated for 7:00 p.m. ET. Below we continue our World Baseball Classic odds series with a Mexico-Japan prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Mexico is fresh off a come-from-behind 5-4 victory over Puerto Rico in the quarterfinals. Before, Mexico had previously won Pool C thanks to going 3-1. Consequently, that included an 11-5 win over the United States that gave them the tiebreaker in Pool C. As for Japan, they are coming off a comfortable 9-3 win over Italy in the quarterfinals. Comparatively, Japan has yet to lose a game in this year's World Baseball Classic as they ran through Pool B with a perfect 4-0 record. Japan has yet to let a game be decided by less than six runs but will face their toughest test yet via Mexico.
Here are the WBC odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2023 WBC Odds: Mexico-Japan Odds
Mexico: +2.5 (+104)
Japan: -2.5 (-128)
Over: 8.5 (-114)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
How To Watch Mexico vs. Japan
TV: FS1, Fox Deportes
Stream: Fox Sports App
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Mexico Could Cover The Spread
Mexico enters tonight's semifinal as the surprise team of the 2023 World Baseball Classic. Mexico had never made it past the second round prior to this year but now needs just two wins to bring home their first-ever WBC Championship. They have largely relied on some clutch hitting and strong defense to get to this semifinal. Mexico ranks third among the 20 teams with a 3.33 team ERA. Runs aren't the only thing that has been hard to come by against Mexico as they also rank fourth with a 1.09 WHIP and .211 opposing batting average. Offensively, Mexico has done just enough to get the job done as they don't stand out in one particular area. That being said, Mexico has been notably aggressive on the basepaths where they are tied for third with six steals.
Taking the mound for Mexico tonight will be lefty Patrick Sandoval. The Los Angeles Angels starter was stellar in his lone previous start. In their upset win over Team USA during pool play, Sandoval allowed just a single run in three innings of work. Additionally, he picked up the win with his effort, striking out two and allowing just two hits for Mexico in their eventual 11-5 victory. The 26-year-old has cemented himself as a capable starter in the MLB. In his first season as a full-time starter last season, Sandoval collected a 6-9 record but notably finished with a 2.91 ERA and 9.14 K/9.
Offensively, Mexico rosters two of the hottest players in the tournament in Joey Meneses and Randy Arozarena. Meneses, their first-baseman, is tied for the second-most hits through five games. The 30-year-old Washington National has carried over his blazing-hot 2022 MLB season into this spring's WBC. After Meneses hit .324 and knocked out 13 homers in 56 games last season, he's been even better this spring – batting .391 with two home runs and six RBI in five WBC games. As for Arozarena, the Tampa Bay Ray is flashing that star potential many pegged him with after winning the 2020 ALCS MVP and 2021 AL Rookie of the Year. While Arozarena regressed down to a .263 average in 2022, he has flipped the script during this year's WBC. Through five games, the left fielder is batting .471 with a homer and nine RBI. Consequently, he's been a constant on the basepaths thanks to a .625 OBP.
Why Japan Could Cover The Spread
Japan has been the juggernaut of the 2023 classic, outscoring opponents 38-8 thus far. Consequently, with such dominant performances on both sides of the plate, Japan is a heavy favorite yet again tonight. Through five games, Japan leads the tournament with a .475 OBP and 14 doubles. Additionally, they've been far and away the most dominant pitching team thanks to a class-leading 1.80 ERA. Likewise, Japan has dominated hitters in the strikeout department with 63 strikeouts in just 45 innings pitched.
The biggest factor in Japan covering tonight is 21-year-old phenom Roki Sasaki. The right-handed fireballer started one previous game for Japan and allowed just a single unearned run in 3 2/3 innings of work in their win over the Czech Republic. Additionally, he struck out eight hitters and allowed just two huts. Sasaki made rounds across social media after he eclipsed 100 mph. on 21 of his 66 pitches. Considering Mexico struggled against Colombia flamethrower Guillermo Zuniga in their eventual loss, Sasaki could be an X-factor if he's able to last a few innings.
Final Mexico-Japan Prediction & Pick
Mexico has been the cinderella story of the 2023 WBC but they've unfortunately run into the juggernaut that is Japan. Hammer the favorites in what won't be nearly as close of a game as some are portraying.
Final Mexico-Japan Prediction & Pick: Japan -2.5 (-128)
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