It is the finals of the World Baseball Classic! The United States goes for their second straight crown after winning in 2017, led by Trea Turner and Nolan Arenado. Japan is looking for their third crown, but first since 2009. We continue our World Baseball Classic odds series with a USA-Japan prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The USA club comes into the showdown tonight as the favorite. In pool play, the United States was the Pool C runner-up, going 3-1. They beat Canada, Colombia, and Great Britain, but fell to Mexico in group play. They then defeated Venezuela and Cuba in the playoffs to face off against Japan. Offensively, the United States has been led by Nolan Arenado’s .440 OBP, and Trea Turner’s four home runs and 10 RBIs. Tonight, Merrill Kelly gets the start. In his lone start, he gave up two earned runs in three innings with a strikeout against Colombia.
Japan has slugger Shohei Ohtani, but he is not the only power on this squad. Shugo Maki and Masataka Yoshida both have two home runs in the tournament. Yoshida leads all hitters with 13 RBIs, three ahead of Trea Turner. Japan won pool B with wins over Australia, Korea, the Czech Republic, and China. They then beat Italy and had a walk-off win over Mexico to get to the finals. Shōta Imanaga will be the starter for Japan tonight. Imanga has appeared in two games, with four innings pitched, one earned run, and five strikeouts.
Here are the WBC odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2023 WBC Odds: USA-Japan Odds
USA: -1.5 (+118)
Japan: +1.5 (-144)
Over: 10.5 (-102)
Under: 10.5 (-120)
How To Watch USA vs. Japan
TV: FS1
Stream: FoxSports App
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why USA Could Cover The Spread
For the United States to win, it has to start with Merrill Kelly. Kelly was not amazing in his first WBC outing, as he allowed two runs on four hits with two walks in three innings. The rotation for the United States has not been stellar, but against a team like Japan, Kelly has to be better than he was against Colombia. 36 of his 62 pitches went for strikes against Colombia, and if he can get a few more in the zone tonight, he could see a few more strikeouts and get this game to a solid bullpen.
The bullpen has been great and will need to be again tonight. It is also well-rested. Mikolas and Loup saw action against Cuba, but the rest of the bullpen is well-rested, and loaded with studs like Ottavino, Jason Adam, Ryan Pressly, and Kendall Graveman. On the note of stud players, the bats need to be alive tonight, and they can be. This lineup is great against lefty pitching. They have plenty of right-handed bats that can hit. Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado will be at the top of the lineup. Asking a pitcher to face that first four, all batting from the right side seems next to impossible.
Getting a lead early may be key. If the USA team can jump early, get a few runs, and let this well-rested bullpen take over, they can win the WBC.
Why Japan Could Cover The Spread
Japan may not have household names for the American audience, but they have an amazing lineup. Japan is coming off a stunning win over Mexico in a classic game. As a team, Japan leads the WBC in OPS and RBIs. They are second in home runs and also lead the tournament in stolen bases. The biggest name in the lineup is Shohei Ohtani, who is set to bat third for Japan. He has power and makes great contact. The former AL MVP could also see the mound tonight. If Japan needs some relief innings from him, Ohtani may be a do-it-all player, and take the bump.
Japan also has the speedy MLB player Lars Nootbar in the leadoff spot. Nootbar has been solid in the WBC with a .483 OBP and two stolen bases. He is perfect to set the table for the Japan offense. The difference in this game may come down to Munetaka Murakami. Murakami won the Japanese Triple Crown this past year, is a two-time Central League MVP, and led the league in home runs twice. His 56 home runs last year were a record, but he has yet to hit one in the WBC. If he can connect on one tonight, that may be the difference.
Final USA-Japan Prediction & Pick
The rested bullpen for the United States is a huge advantage. They also have a great line-up to face a left-handed pitcher. Trea Turner has been amazing this tournament, and he will look to continue. Kyle Schwarber also is a big game player. He has now homered in an ALDS, NLDS, ALCS, NLCS, World Series, and WBC event. On the Japan side, Ohtani is one of the best in the world. He is going to give his all tonight to win for Japan. Unless Murakami can do something special again, it may not be enough though.
Final USA-Japan Prediction & Pick: USA -1.5 (+118)
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