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The 2023 FIBA World Cup is upon us as the group stages begin on Friday, August 25. With that said, it is time to begin our 2023 FIBA World Cup odds series with a Mexico-Montenegro prediction and pick.
Mexico enters this tournament having won its five friendlies over the past month, although they were against less competitive versions of the teams who will compete in the World Cup. Nonetheless, the Latin American squad should be feeling good heading into the tournament as they have been playing together for much longer than most teams. Their most recent win came against the Philippines, where Pako Cruz led them with 18 points en route to an 84-77 win.
Meanwhile, Montenegro went 2-3 throughout their exhibition games. They lost to France and Slovenia to open their friendlies, then took down Iran. After a loss to Georgia, they concluded their exhibition slate with a win over the Philippines. Against the Southeast Asian team, Nikola Vucevic led a strong second-half surge by Montenegro to pull away with a 102-87 victory after leading by just two points at halftime.
Here are the 2023 FIBA World Cup Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
FIBA World Cup Odds: Mexico-Montenegro Odds:
Mexico: +8.5 (-113)
Montenegro: -8.5 (-113)
Over: 156.5 (-113)
Under: 156.5 (-113)
How to Watch Mexico vs. Montenegro
TV: ESPN+
Stream: Watch ESPN
Time: 4:00 AM ET/ 1:00 AM PT
*Watch FIBA World Cup Games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Mexico could cover the spread
Mexico will already be up for quite the task to open its stint in the 2023 FIBA World Cup as they take on one of the favorites in Group C in Montenegro. They enter the tournament rostering just six players above 6-foot-6, so height could become an issue for this team against a sizable Montenegro squad.
On the flip side, the Mexicans can utilize their lack of size to their advantage by playing a faster brand of basketball with the group of speedy guards they have 0n their team. Mexico head coach Omar Quintero has allowed his guards Pako Cruz, Paul Stoll, Orlando Mendez, and Gabriel Giron Jr. to run the show and play with pace against Montenegro's bigger players.
Cruz is the best player on this team, being the only guy playing in Europe. The 6-foot-3 guard played for Manisa and in the 2022-23 season, he averaged 16.8 points and shot 42.5 percent from beyond the arc.
In addition, this team has also been playing together since mid-July, so they already have a pretty good feel of playing with each other. They won their five friendlies. Though most of them were against less competitive teams, those wins should still give them a confidence boost heading into their first group-stage game against Montenegro.
This team also plays with a lot of passion and togetherness. Though they may be heavy underdogs in this tournament, their competitive fire could keep them in games even against stronger teams.
Why Montenegro could cover the spread
Montenegro enters this matchup as pretty heavy favorites, as the Balkan country needs to win by at least nine points to cover the 8.5-point spread. Perhaps Montenegro's biggest advantage is that they have an NBA player in Nikola Vucevic and Mexico does not. Being a nightly 20-10 player in the NBA and is a multiple-time All-Star, Vucevic is simply a cut above the rest among all players on both sides. The Chicago Bulls center should feast against the smaller and less skilled big men of the North American team. The Mexicans could have trouble containing him down on the block with his more advanced skillset and size advantage.
Speaking of size advantage, Montenegro has the upper hand on that as well. They employ eight players above 6-foot-8 and they should utilize that to their favor against Mexico's small roster. While Mexico could run them down with their faster guards, the Montenegrins could slow the game down and pick them apart in half-court settings, where they can be patient and use their size.
Apart from Vucevic, Marko Simonovic, who appeared in seven NBA games with the Bulls in 2022-23, is also another player who stands out against Mexico's players. Simonovic played most of the 2022-23 campaign for Chicago's G-League affiliate, the Windy City Bulls. He averaged 14.8 points and 9.9 rebounds in 42 games.
American-born naturalized guard Kendrick Perry will man the perimeter for Montenegro. The 6-foot guard averaged 12.4 points for Unicaja in the Liga ACB this past season.
Final Mexico-Montenegro Prediction & Pick
It's hard not to pick Montenegro for this one. They have an NBA All-Star in Vucevic and an NBA G-League standout in Simonovic, who could simply dominate a much smaller Mexico squad. Montenegro should have no trouble covering the spread either. They showed they can turn it up a notch against lesser teams when they need to, as they did against the Philippines.
