Two-time champ Pete Alonso squares off with Seattle's own Julio Rodriguez in round one of the Home Run Derby Monday night! This will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out a Pete Alonso-Julio Rodriguez prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the Home Run Derby.

The MLB All-Star break kicks off with the Home Run Derby Monday night and it should be a fun one. There is plenty of firepower involved and there should be no shortage of moonshots hit in the event. T-Mobile Park will be hosting the derby, and it does allow its fair shair of home runs. The weather for Monday night is supposed to be beautiful and a slight breeze will be blowing out to center field.

Below are the 2023 Home Run Derby Odds, courtesy of FanDuel

2023 Home Run Derby Odds

Pete Alonso: -170

Julio Rodriguez: +138

How to watch the Home Run Derby

TV: ESPN

Stream: ESPN app

Time: 8 PM ET/ 5 PM PT

Why Pete Alonso will beat Julio Rodriguez

Pete Alonso is mashing baseballs this season. He is tied for third in home runs and could easily break his own personal record for home runs in a season. This will not be his first derby, either. Alonso is a two-time champion and was close to capturing the gold last season. He has the experience in the event and he takes it a little more serious than anybody else. He knows what it takes to win, when to take his timeouts and how to keep himself from getting as fatigued. That alone puts him as one of the favorites to win not only this round, but the whole thing.

Alonso should be able to get the 440-foot bonus for the extra time in the round which will help. He will need to probably hit at least 25 home runs if he wants to advance, so the bonus time will be massive for him. Alonso swings hard every pitch, but he does so in a controlled manner. He will need a high number to win, but it is definitely possible.

Why Julio Rodriguez will beat Pete Alonso

Rodriguez is a part of the Mariners team. Hitting in his own stadium, Rodriguez should be very comfortable at the plate. He has just 13 home runs this season, but he is top-20 in average exit velocity. His longest home run is 454 feet, as well. Rodriguez should be able to get the bonus and if Alonso earns the bonus, Rodriguez will have to. The young outfielder has 134 balls hit at 95+ this season and that exit velocity is going to be important. Another pitch can not be thrown until the ball lands, so the hard you hit the ball, the faster it lands. He will need a few deep home runs, but those 400-foot bombs are just as good in an event like this.

Rodriguez was the runner up in the home run derby last season. He hit over 30 in both round one and round two. Rodriguez was actually the one to knock out Pete Alonso, so this should be a fun rematch. He came out absolutely destroying the baseball and this year's event should be no different. The adrenaline will be rushing even more because it is in Seattle, so I expect the same kind of fireworks from him again.

Final Pete Alonso-Julio Rodriguez prediction and pick

It is very easy to go with Alonso in this round. He is experienced, a two-time champ and lives for the Home Run Derby. However, Rodriguez was great in it last year and it is in his home park this year. The fans are going to be behind him and the adrenaline in his blood is going to rush even more than last year. If he comes out and has another 30+ round, there is no way he loses. I am taking Rodriguez in front of his home crowd.

Final Pete Alonso-Julio Rodriguez prediction and pick: Julio Rodriguez (+138)