The 2023 Home Run Derby is here! Vladimir Guerrero Jr will be taking on Mookie Betts in the first round of the Derby. Below we will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out a Vladimir Guerrero Jr-Mookie Betts prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the home run derby.

The MLB does not have many All-Star festivitis besides the actual game, but the one they do have is very fun to watch. The home run derby showcases the hitters with elite power in the MLB and lets them just smack balls out of the ball park. With the time limit format, hitters just take swing after swing with almost no breaks, so it is impressive to watch them hit upwards of 30 home runs in four minutes.

Some background on the location of All-Star weekend and the home run derby. T-Mobile Park is home to the Seattle Mariners. The weather for the derby is going to be absolutey gorgeous with a slight breeze blowing out to center field. Not many runs are scored at T-Mobile park, but that is mainly because of poor hitting and great pitching from Seattle. There are more home runs than average hit at their field, so this should be a fun home run derby. Right field does play a little shorter than left field, but no matter what the case is, we should see some home runs launched to all parts of the park.

2023 Home Run Derby Odds, courtesy of FanDuel

2023 Home Run Derby Odds 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: -215

Mookie Betts: +172

How to Watch the Home Run Derby

TV: ESPN

Stream: ESPN app

Time: 8:00 PM ET/ 5:00 PM PT

Why Vladimir Guerrero Jr will win against Mookie Betts

To start, let's take a look at the numbers. This season, Guerrero has just 13 home runs and one this month. He does play in a tough position, but no matter how you slice it, 13 home runs is tough to bet on in the home run derby. However, Guerrero had a combined 80 homeruns in 2021 and 2022 combined. The power potential is there with him, this season just seems to be a bit of an off year for him. Of all the home run derby participants, Guerrero has the longest average home run. I would not be surprised to see Guerrero hit 20 or more home runs in the second half of the season.

The reason Guerrero is a high seed in the home run derby is because of his history at the event. This will be his second time participating, and first time since 2019. However, he was a electric in that derby at Progressive Field. Vlad Jr hit a total of 91 home runs in the home run derby that year and finished as the runner up behind Pete Alonso. He knows what it takes to do well in the Derby and his batting practice power is unmatched. As long he does not get too tired, Guerrero will win this matchup.

Why Mookie Betts will win against Vladimir Guerrero Jr

Betts is a sneaky participant. This will be his first derby, but he is a freak athlete. I am not worried about Betts losing focus or getting fatigued all that much in this event. Betts is tied for the third most home runs in the MLB this year. He has 26 at the break, but he does not consider himself a power hitter. Betts has an average home run distance of 396, and it is unlikely that he will get to the 440 mark twice. However, this is not necessary. If Betts can just home runs that go 380-390 to left field, he can finish with a good amount.

Betts has the second highest amount of balls hit 95 mph or harder this season of anybody in the derby. The only problem is Vlad Jr is number one. Nonetheless, If Betts worries just about hitting hard line drives over the fence rather than moonshots, he will not tire himelf out. In turn, this will help him win this matchup. It is a long shot, but Betts definitely has a chance to win in the first round.

Final Vladimir Guerrero Jr-Mookie Betts prediction and pick

Vlad Jr is a monster at the plate. Betts does not seem to care whether he wins or loses, but it should still be a good matchup. However, with the experience in the derby and the ability to earn extra time, I expect Vladimir Guerrero Jr to hit 20 or more home runs in round one and advance to the nect round.

Final Vladimir Guerrero Jr-Mookie Betts prediction and pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr (-215)