The New York Jets officially acquired Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers and FanDuel has us covered with a number of 2023 Jets props. At the forefront of all of New York's minds is how the future Hall-of-Famer will play in 2023. With a modest yards total, there is certainly money to be made betting the Aaron Rodgers' passing yards prop. Below we continue our NFL odds series with an Aaron Rodgers yards prediction and betting pick.

Here are the Aaron Rodgers yards odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NFL Odds: Aaron Rodgers Yards Odds

Over: 4,000.5 yards (-112)

Under 4,000.5 yards (-112)

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The Case For The Over

Despite a down year in 2023, Aaron Rodgers was arguably playing the best football of his career prior to last season. Rodgers took home the MVP in back-to-back seasons in 2020 and 2021 before cratering last season. He threw for 4,299 yards in 2020 and then 4,115 yards in 2021. In fact, Rodgers eclipsed 4,000 yards in 10 of his 13 seasons in which he played at least 15 games. If you're purely playing the odds, Rodgers feels like a lock to do so again in 2023.

The issue lies in his age. Rodgers will be 40 years old by the time next season finishes and he is coming off unquestionably his worst season. In 2023, Rodgers threw for just 3,695 yards while throwing the most interceptions since his first year as a starter. His 39.3 QBR easily set a career-low while his 64.6% completion percentage wasn't nearly up to the near-70% he saw during his best years. So why could he bounce back in 2023? Well, for starters, Rodgers receives a major upgrade in receiving weapons with the Jets.

Looking at the tools at Rodgers' disposal in 2022 and it's easy to see why he struggled. The Packers traded All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams prior to the season and attempted to fill in mid-round rookies to replace his production. Predictably, it didn't pan out. While Christian Watson and Romeo Doubbs could certainly end up having solid careers, they weren't equipped to serve as primary options for an MVP quarterback. The two combine for just 83 receptions and a tick over 1,000 yards. Green Bay's leading receiver, Allen Lazard, caught 60 balls for 788 yards. Those are fine numbers for your third option but when your No. 1 receiver puts up those numbers the offense is going to struggle.

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In New York, Rodgers' No. 1 last year (Lazard) follows him but instead will be reserved as more of a complimentary piece rather than his primary option. Having a possession wideout Rodgers' harbors chemistry with could be huge in moving the chains on early downs. However, the biggest piece to Rodgers' puzzle in 2023 is Garrett Wilson. New York's 2022 first-round pick flashed star potential in his rookie year. The 6'0″ wideout caught 83 balls for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns despite mediocre (at best) quarterback play. Year after year we see receivers break out in their second seasons. Consequently, Wilson may be the second-most talented wideout Rodgers has ever played with. We've seen what he can do with a dominant wideout and if Wilson marginally improves in his second year he could threaten the league leaders in receiving yards.

The Case For The Under

The case for Rodgers' under is pretty simple. The 39-year-old quarterback coming off his worst season could very well be declining. Rodgers struggled to push the ball downfield last season as only 39% of his completions netted 10 or more yards. That ranked 28th in the NFL. Rodgers' mobility declined dramatically last season as one would expect from an aging quarterback. He struggled from the pocket even when there was no pressure. While his receiving core improves in New York, they, too, may have similar pass protection issues that he saw in Green Bay. Additionally, he goes from the weak NFC North to one of the toughest divisions in football – the AFC East. With trips up north to both New England and Buffalo, Rodgers could miss his yards purely thanks to a few bad-weather games.

Final Aaron Rodgers Yards Prediction & Betting Pick

Look – Rodgers may be cooked. He's entering his age-40 season in a new offense with a vastly superior conference and division. There is certainly a chance he just isn't the same player he once was.

That being said, the Jets (and Rodgers' passing yards prop) don't need him to be MVP Rodgers. With a 17-game schedule in today's modern game, competent quarterbacks can sleepwalk to 4,000 yards. Nine quarterbacks eclipsed 4,000 yards last season including Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, and Geno Smith. With improved weapons at his disposal, Rodgers should be a lock to bounce back and hit his over on passing yards.

Final Aaron Rodgers Yards Prediction & Betting Pick: Over 4,000.5 yards (-112)