Player prop bets are a great way to make money based on the performance of individual players. There is also an opportunity to take advantage of recent trends and back player projections before the books have a chance to react and adjust their lines accordingly.
Let’s take a closer look at the best player props for tonight’s NBA slate.
All NBA odds are courtesy of FanDuel.
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Kevin Durant Total Points: Over 25.5 (-104)
Durant is a superstar, and he will be looking to ramp up with the playoffs fast approaching. The only thing that gives me slight hesitation about this bet is he'll likely spend some time matched up with Kawhi Leonard, who is one of the best defensive players in the league.
However, with the Suns likely looking at this as a scrimmage in preparation for the playoffs, Durant should have the green light to go at Leonard, and the superstar forward is averaging a shade over 27 points per game for the season. Durant has a size and length advantage against Leonard and should be able to shoot over the top as he pleases.
The Clippers will also have to deal with Devin Booker and the rest of the Suns’ offense, which will help to take some attention off of Durant. KD is an all-time great scorer and should be able to reach his points total with relative ease through a steady dose of mid-range jumpers, drives, and pull-up threes.
Chet Holmgren Total Assists: Over 1.5 (-125)
It's surprising that Chet Holmgren’s assist total dropped to 1.5 tonight, as it is frequently at the 2.5 mark and this matchup tonight's matchup lends itself to Holmgren passing rather than attacking. The Thunder will be hosting the San Antonio Spurs, who feature this year’s likely Rookie of the Year winner in star center Victor Wembanyama.
Not only is Wemby likely to win the Rookie of the Year award, but he could also make some noise in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. Wembanyama is averaging north of three blocks per game and has already racked up a highlight reel of plays on the defensive end. Part of Oklahoma City's game plan will be to minimize when bananas influence in the paint and neutralize his presence by attacking from the perimeter.
Playmaking is an underappreciated part of Holmgren’s game, and he'll likely be looking to utilize this part of his skillset to force Wemby into uncomfortable situations. Superstar guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a great slasher and has developed into an above-average shooter. Holmgren should have several opportunities to find SGA on the perimeter or cutting to the rim, and the guard can consistently convert open looks into scoring opportunities. Isaiah Joe is also a deadeye sharpshooter, and with the Spurs roster severely lacking outside of Wemby, Joe should find himself open more often than not. If Holmgren can keep the ball moving, it will both put pressure on when Wembenyama and create opportunities for Holmgren to rack up assists.
Back Oklahoma City's big man to go over his assist total for this prop bet.
Kyrie Irving: Over 29.5 Points + Assists (-115)
Luka Doncic is one of the top three players in the world right now, which means that he will likely find himself guarded by Jimmy Butler for the majority of this game. Butler is easily Miami's most impactful player on the defensive end, and he's not the kind of guy to shy away from big matchups. With Butler guarding Doncic, it would be advantageous for the Mavericks to run their offense through Kyrie Irving for the majority of this game. Many people in the NBA world seem to forget just how good Kyrie is when he's engaged and at his best. Kyrie is healthy and seems happy in Dallas, which should unlock the offensive maestro version of Irving that we saw in Cleveland and at times in Boston and Brooklyn.
Kyrie could play this in multiple ways. One way would be to relentlessly attack lesser defensive players such as Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier, taking the ball to the rim or crossing them up for stepback three-pointers. Kyrie has some of the best ball-handling moves in the league and could absolutely put either of these guys on skates throughout the night.
Irving could also tap into his playmaking, finding Doncic cutting to the rim and other players on the perimeter. Betting the over for Kyrie's points total or assists total could also work out well, but there is some uncertainty as to whether he'll take an aggressive scoring approach or a playmaking approach to this game. I think the best bet is to back the over for Irving's points and assists combo bet. He could easily surpass this total just on points if he is aggressive, but I think we're likely to see a minimum stat line of 25 points and 5 assists from Irving tonight, which would be enough to cash this bet.
PJ Washington Total Points: Over 11.5 (-112)
Washington's point total is set slightly below his season average, and if Doncic is hounded by Jimmy Butler all night, other players will have to step up for the Mavericks. The good news is that Dallas has a talented and deep roster, and Washington is a player who should benefit from the increased attention on Doncic. Back Washington to reach his season average, and he’ll likely exceed it.
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