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It is the first round in the battle for the Commander in Chief trophy as Air Force faces Navy. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with an Air Force-Navy prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Air Force comes into the game 6-0 on the season and is now ranked number 22 in the AP Poll. Only two of their games this year have been within two scores. The first game within two scores was the second game of the year against Sam Houston. Air Force kicked a field goal in the second quarter and Sam Houston responded in the third with a field goal of their own. Air Force would score twice in the fourth and win 13-3. Then last time out it was a back and forth with Wyoming. Air Force was down 21-17 to Wyoming at the half. In the fourth quarter, Wyoming scored and could have taken the lead, but a blocked extra point would keep it tied. Then with 2:17 left in the game, Air Force scored with 2:17 left in the game to take the 34-27 victory.
Navy enters the game at 3-3. They lost the game to Notre Dame 42-3 but rebounded with a win over Wagner. Navy would lose the next two games, both in conference play. They lost to Memphis by just four, and then to South Florida. Still, they would rebound against North Texas, with a three-point win. Last week, the defense was dominant. It was tied at zero at halftime, but Navy would score in the third quarter and in the fourth to win 14-0.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Air Force-Navy Odds
Air Force: -10.5 (-106)
Navy: +10.5 (-114)
Over: 34.5 (-105)
Under: 34.5 (-115)
How to Watch Air Force vs. Navy Week 7
Time: 12:00 PM ET/ 9:00 AM PT
TV: CBS
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Air Force Will Cover The Spread
The offense is led by quarterback Zac Larrier. He has attempted just 28 passes this year, with 20 completitions. He has 468 yards passing this year, with four touchdowns. Larrier has been careful with the ball this year, not throwing an interception, while also not throwing a turnover-worthy pass this season. The other great part of his game is on the ground. Larrier has run for 478 yards this year, with four touchdowns. He does have three fumbles but has not fumbled since the game against Sam Houston.
The running game for Air Force is the hallmark of the team. Emmanuel Michel leads the way running the ball this year. He has run for 480 yards this year on 112 attempts. He is getting over two yards downfield before first contact this season, while also scoring eight times this year. John Lee Eldridge III has 347 yards on the ground as well, averaging over 10 yards per carry this year. He has four touchdowns this year as well. Joining them being solid this year, Owen Burk has run for 301 yards this year with three touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Air Force does have a big play threat at receiver. Jaren Roznos has brought in nine of ten targets this year, with the only miss being a drop. He has 279 yards this year with two touchdowns. Roznos also has 135 yards after the catch.
Air Force is solid on defense this year. They rank third in the nation in yards allowed per game while sitting sixth in rushing yards against per game. They are stout in tackling, with just 14 missed tackles this year. Alec Mock leads the way for this defense with 17 stops for offensive failures while making 22 tackles in the run game. He has an average depth of tackle just 1.7 yards beyond the line of scrimmage this year. He is joined by Jonathan Youngblood, who has ten stops for offensive failures and has yet to miss a tackle in the run game.
Why Navy Will Cover The Spread
For Navy, it will all start with Tai Lavatia. He is not a major passing threat but can make some big plays. He has passed for just 426 yards on the season with three touchdowns, but he also has only passed 52 times this year. Lavatia has done some work with his legs this year. He has 153 yards rushing on the ground while conducting the offense and he has scored twice on the ground
The ground game is the key for the Navy offense. Alex Tecza leads the way this year. He has 62 rushes for 505 yards and has scored four times this year. He is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, and only 3.56 of those are coming after first contact. Meanwhile, Daba Fofana has been solid as well. He has run for 253 yards this year and a score. Overall, Navy has scored ten times on the ground this year, while running for 1,443 yards
The defense for Navy has been fair, but not great overall. They rank 79th in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game while sitting 72nd in the nation against the pass. The run defense is led by Will Harbour. He has 19 stops for offensive failures this year with 24 total tackles in the run game. He also has a forced fumble this year. Still, the biggest issue for Navy has been missed tackles this year. They have missed 57 tackles in the run game this year. Still, there are some issues in coverage. They have allowed nine touchdowns through the air while allowing over 1,300 yards.
Final Air Force-Navy Prediction & Pick
Since 2005 unders in service academy are 43-10-1. In the last ten match-ups between these two schools, the under has hit in eight of them. In this game, both teams are going to run the ball plenty. Still, Air Force is much better against the run than Navy. They also have a very solid running game and can pass if needed. They are not going to need to pass much in this game. Air Force will be able to dominate the running game, and while there will be not a lot of pace to this game, and the clock will run quickly, they will score plenty to cover the spread in this one.
Final Air Force-Navy Prediction & Pick: Air Force -10.5 (-106) and Under 34.5 (-115)
