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The New York Yankees take on the Houston Astros in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series. Check out our MLB odds series for our Yankees Astros prediction and pick.
Jameson Taillon will start for the Yankees, while Justin Verlander gets the call for the Astros.
Jameson Taillon last pitched in Game 2 of the American League Division Series. He gave up the tie-breaking runs to the Cleveland Guardians in the 10th inning on Friday. He gave up very soft contact on most of the base hits the Guardians collected in that inning, but he did give up one hard-hit ball to the outfield. Should that be viewed as an indication of what we are likely to see in Game 1 of the ALCS? Not necessarily. However, it is true that after a terrific April and May, in which Taillon pitched close to a two-run ERA and was excellent for the Yankees, he regressed in the second half of the season and gave up a lot more home runs. He had kept the ball in the yard in April and May, but then he surrendered a lot of dingers in the summer. The Astros have had three days of rest since they won their ALDS battle against the Seattle Mariners. They are going to present a tough challenge to Taillon in this situation, which exists because the Yankees were extended to five games in the ALDS and won't have their two best starters available until Gerrit Cole goes to the mound in Game 3 over the weekend.
Justin Verlander will be the 2022 American League Cy Young Award winner at the age of 39. He had a brilliant regular season. However, he stepped on the mound in the playoffs and was crushed by the Seattle Mariners in Game 1 of the ALDS. Seattle hitters ambushed him and got on top of him. Verlander did not get the running action and late movement on his pitches which he normally counts on. He did not have the bite or deception on his pitches which enable him to get hitters off balance. This was not a situation in which Verlander made good pitches and hitters still put good swings on the ball. Verlander did not have his best stuff. Now we get to find out if Verlander will remain ineffective or if he will bounce back.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Yankees-Astros odds.
ALCS Odds: Yankees-Astros Game 1 Odds
New York Yankees: +1.5 (-142)
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+118)
Over: 7 (+100)
Under: 7 (-122)
Why The Yankees Could Cover the Spread
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The Yankees have to feel good about this game and this series in one particular respect: Their mashers are swinging the bats well. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton homered on Tuesday in a Game 5 ALDS victory over Cleveland. Anthony Rizzo is getting big hits, which is an absolute necessity for the Bronx Bombers if they want to win this series. If all three of those big hitters can leave the yard multiple times in the ALCS, the Yankees will have a chance, especially if some of those homers are multi-run dingers.
Let's also address the idea that the Yankees will be tired for this game, having to fly late to Houston instead of getting a day off before the start of this series due to the Monday rainout in the ALDS: Keep in mind that the Yankees had several days off before the ALDS. Then they had two rainouts in that series. The Yankees, over the past eight days (Oct. 12-19), have played only four games. They're not tired. If anything, they want to return to daily baseball.
Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread
Justin Verlander is the reason to take the Astros. He is highly unlikely to pitch two straight terrible postseason games. It's true that his postseason numbers aren't great, but two straight bad starts is just not something to expect, given how strong JV has been this year.
The other reason to take the Astros: Jameson Taillon. The Yankees needed Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes to beat the Guardians. This is just not a pitching matchup which works for them, in any way. Yordan Alvarez against Taillon is a nightmare for the Yanks. It should affect the Yankees Astros odds.
Final Yankees-Astros Prediction & Pick
Taillon against Verlander is a lopsided pitching matchup, and Verlander is highly likely to thrive. This sets up really well for Houston. The Yankees Astros pick you should make is clear in ALCS Game 1.
Final Yankees-Astros Prediction & Pick: Astros -1.5
