Noche UFC: Diego Lopes versus Jean Silva kicks off the main card with a fight between Alexander Hernandez and Diego Ferreira in the lightweight division at Noche UFC on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Hernandez-Ferreira prediction and pick.
Alexander Hernandez (17-8) enters Noche UFC following an explosive first-round TKO of Chase Hooper at UFC 319 in August, landing a devastating counter right hook in the final seconds. Before that knockout win, Hernandez suffered back-to-back decision losses to Damon Jackson and Bill Algeo, but has won three straight since returning to lightweight.
Diego Ferreira (19-6) comes to Noche UFC following a unanimous decision loss to Grant Dawson at UFC 311 in January 2025. Prior to that, Ferreira scored a third-round TKO over Mateusz Rębecki in May 2024, reminding fans of his top-tier grappling and finishing instincts as he takes on Hernandez.
Here are the Noche UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
Noche UFC odds: Alexander Hernandez-Diego Ferreira odds
Alexander Hernandez: +100
Diego Ferreira: -120
Over 2.5 rounds: -135
Under 2.5 rounds: +105
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Why Alexander Hernandez will win
- Last Fight: (W) Chase Hooper – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 9 (7 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Alexander Hernandez has the athleticism and early explosiveness to trouble Carlos Diego Ferreira at Noche UFC. Hernandez’s fast-twitch movement and high-volume boxing allow him to explode into combinations and get in and out before Ferreira can establish his rhythm, especially in the opening round when Hernandez is historically most dangerous.
On the feet, Hernandez throws with more power and diversity than many of Ferreira’s recent opponents. He uses sharp angles and stutter steps to disguise his entries, opening opportunities to land overhands or body shots while keeping Ferreira guessing. Hernandez’s ability to repeatedly mix in takedowns keeps foes off-balance and could give him critical control time if Ferreira overcommits to his own counters.
Cardio has been a question late in fights, but Hernandez will look to bank early rounds with pace, movement, and damage. As Ferreira prefers a slower, grind-oriented tempo, Hernandez’s speed edge and aggression may prevent the Brazilian from ever taking the momentum.
By executing a disciplined game plan—attacking early, mixing levels, and denying back exposure in scrambles—Hernandez can stay a step ahead. The recipe for victory is a hot start, precise shot selection, and adaptability, propelling Hernandez to a decision victory or late stoppage.
Why Diego Ferreira will win
- Last Fight: (L) Grant Dawson -DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 12 (5 KO/TKO/7 SUB)
Diego Ferreira’s biggest advantage against Alexander Hernandez at Noche UFC is his relentless pressure and world-class grappling. Ferreira excels in wearing down opponents with high-volume striking and grinding clinch work, setting up takedowns that allow him to dominate position and work for submissions or ground-and-pound.
While Hernandez starts fast, Ferreira’s durability and cardio become serious weapons as the fight extends. The Brazilian thrives in long, grueling contests, using his deep gas tank to turn momentum after weathering early storms. As Hernandez slows, Ferreira’s ability to mix in constant forward movement, dirty boxing, and bodywork often breaks the spirit of less experienced foes.
Ferreira’s patience in defending takedowns and returning to his feet may also frustrate Hernandez’s wrestling. Once Ferreira settles into top position or locks in hooks on the ground, his positional control makes escapes nearly impossible and opens up finishing opportunities with his Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
If Ferreira survives the initial barrage, he is fully capable of taking over rounds two and three with superior conditioning and technical skill. Expect Ferreira to absorb early punishment, up his output as the fight drags on, and secure a submission or clear-cut decision as Hernandez fades late.
Final Alexander Hernandez-Diego Ferreira prediction & pick
Alexander Hernandez is poised to get the nod over Diego Ferreira at Noche UFC, capitalizing on both momentum and athletic advantages. Hernandez’s recent performances, highlighted by his emphatic first-round KO of Chase Hooper, suggest he’s regained his early-career confidence and is employing a sharp, aggressive game plan.
Hernandez excels when controlling the pace, utilizing explosive entries, power combinations, and quick movement to score points and frustrate veterans like Ferreira. Early on, look for him to blitz with straight punches and mix in takedowns, disrupting Ferreira’s rhythm before the Brazilian can establish his methodical pressure or grappling.
While Ferreira is always a threat with his cardio and well-rounded grappling skillset, he’s struggled to turn the tide against fresher, faster opponents in recent bouts. Hernandez will focus on banking early rounds, maintaining constant lateral movement, and avoiding the extended clinch or scramble scenarios that favor Ferreira.
If Hernandez sustains this pace and stays disciplined defensively, he can build a secure lead on the scorecards. Expect Hernandez to take a unanimous decision or possibly secure a late TKO if Ferreira fades and can’t adjust to the younger fighter’s speed and aggression.
Final Alexander Hernandez-Diego Ferreira Prediction & Pick: Alexander Hernandez (+100), Over (-135)
