UFC Paris is just warming up as the Prelims get started on ESPN+ for yet another Fight Night card. This next bout takes place in the Welterweight (170) Division and features two dangerous strikers in Sweden's Andreas Gustafsson and Russia's Rinat Fakhretdinov. Check the UFC odds for our Gustafsson-Fakhretdinov prediction and pick.
Andreas Gustafsson (12-2) is 1-0 under the UFC heading into his second appearance. After a number of cancelled bouts, Gustafsson finally made his debut against Khaos Williams and impressed with a unanimous decision win. Now, he's the slight betting favorite against another highly-touted prospect. Gustafsson stands 6-foot-1 with a 73.5-inch reach.
Rinat Fakhretdinov (24-2-1) is 5-0-1 inside the UFC since debuting in 2022. Aside from his ‘draw' against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, Fakhretdinov has been a tough problem to solve with four decisions and a submission. He'll be the short underdog for the first time in his UFC run. Fakhretdinov stands six feet tall with a 74-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Paris Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Paris Odds: Andreas Gustafsson-Rinat Fakhretdinov Odds
Andreas Gustafsson: -118
Rinat Fakhretdinov: -102
Over 2.5 rounds: -195
Under 2.5 rounds: +150
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Why Andreas Gustafsson Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Khaos Williams – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Andrea Gustafsson was tested with a formidable opponent during his debut, to which he passed with flying colors. Against a knockout puncher like Williams, Gustafsson managed to out-strike his opponent while landing eight of 14 takedown attempts. His relentless pressure has been his greatest strength up to this point and it should be once more against an opponent like Fakhretdinov.
Gustafsson has shown a fearless willingness to stand in the center of the octagon and trade with his opponent. He's also very willing to mix things up on the ground and puts everything behind each one of his punches, creating a serious threat to all three levels of his opponent.
It's surprising to see Gustafsson the betting favorite against a strong opponent like Fakhretdinov, but it's a testament to his rising stock and skills as a fresh prospect. The key to his success here will be walking through Fakhretdinov and stuffing the takedowns and pressuring with the same tactic on his end.
Why Rinat Fakhretdinov Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Carlos Leal – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-0-1
- Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Rinat Fakhretdinov has found a way to win in each of his appearances and although it hasn't always been pretty, he's incredibly resilient in staying in the fight and not allowing opponents time to build a lead on him. He's relentless with his wrestling and could be a great challenge for another willing grappler in Gustafsson.
We've seen Fakhretdinov become a much more willing striker over his last few bouts, a clear indication that he's been willing to work on his skill and round out his game. He managed two crucial takedowns to tilt the Carlos Leal decision in his direction, so he'll always have the wrestling to fall back on if he needs it.
Fakhretdinov is able to mold his game plan to his opponent and fight wherever the bout takes him. His cardio has been a question in the past, but it hasn't hindered his ability to keep his output high in the third round. If Fakhretdinov is able to bait his opponent during the first round, it could leave things open in the second for him to work his wrestling.
Final Andreas Gustafsson-Rinat Fakhretdinov Prediction & Pick
This will be a very intriguing matchup as both fighters have very similar skill sets from their striking down to their wrestling. Both men have knockout capabilities, but the slight striking edge has to go to Gustafsson simply for how aggressive he is. Fakhretdinov can be seen as the slightly better wrestling thanks to his experience and overall time against better competition.
While Rinat Fakhretdinov has usually been able to lean on his wrestling, we've seen him struggle at times against opponents that can stuff his takedowns and force the striking. Gustafsson also pushes a high pace early on, so there could be a slight chance these two fighters are emptying the tanks early as they search for the finish.
Ultimately, while Rinat Fakhretdinov has seen the better competition up to this point, Andreas Gustafsson poses a very tough matchup with his aggressive work in the wrestling. If these two keep things on the feet, I can see Gustafsson putting the pressure on late while Fakhretdinov slows due to his cardio. For our final pick, we'll roll with the Swedish fighter to get the close win.
Final Andreas Gustafsson-Rinat Fakhretdinov Prediction & Pick: Andreas Gustafsson (-118)
