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The San Francisco 49ers are one of the best teams in all of football, and they have come agonizingly close to winning the Super Bowl in recent years. If Kyle Shanahan’s team plans on securing the Vince Lombardi Trophy this year, they’ll need specific players to step up.
Let’s take a closer look at what the team will need from running back Christian McCaffrey and quarterback Brock Purdy, and how you can profit by placing season-long prop bets for both players.
Here are the NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Christian McCaffrey Over 1100.5 rushing yards (-112)
Christian McCaffrey is not only one of the best running backs in all of football, but he also has a clear argument as the best running back. No player has quite the same combination of vision, athleticism, power, physicality, and speed as McCaffrey does. He can beat defenses in many different ways. McCaffrey can beat opposing players to the corner and explode up the sidelines for a big game. He can run between the tackles with ease, fighting off tackles from linebackers and even defensive linemen.
One thing is for certain: if McCaffrey doesn’t reach the over on this prop, it won’t be because of a lack of opportunities. The former Stanford star is a critical element to the 49ers’ plans offensively, and he will likely receive between 25 and 35 carries per game.
If he averages out to approximately 30 carries per game, that would mean McCaffrey would likely finish the season with almost 400 carries. If he averages 4.5 yards per carry, he would reach the over for this bet with ease.
Christian McCaffrey to lead the league in rushing yards (+600)
The Over appears to be a fairly reasonable bet for McCaffrey. If you want to really take a risk, though, consider backing McCaffrey to lead the entire league in rushing yards. He led the league last year, and in the end, it wasn’t really even that close.
Especially if Brandon Aiyuk leaves, the 49ers will be even more reliant on McCaffrey to generate their offense.
He’s an elite player and is certainly capable of putting this team on his back. If the 49ers ask him to carry the majority of the load offensively, McCaffrey backers should have every reason to believe that he is capable of doing so.
Brock Purdy Under 3850.5 passing yards (-112)
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This bet is interesting because there’s a decent argument to be made for both the over and the under. There are some bets that appear to be miss-priced where you can tell which side you want to take just from looking at it. This isn’t one of those, but because Purdy is one of the most popular players in the league, we’ll still take a look at it and make our pick.
The argument for the over is that Purdy has an embarrassment of riches at the receiver position and all that he has to do is get the ball to his playmakers in space and let them do their thing.
This argument accepts the fact that Purdy is not one of the best quarterbacks in the league in terms of pure skill. However, based on this argument, he doesn’t have to do too much beyond just sticking to the script of the game plan and getting the ball to his playmakers with room to work where they can do damage.
It might be best to hold off on making a pick for this bet until we see what ultimately happens regarding one of the team’s star wideouts, Brandon Aiyuk.
If Aiyuk ends up being traded, it will put a dent in the strength San Francisco has at the wide receiver position and could lead to the team leaning more heavily on McCaffrey in the running game. This could somewhat temper expectations for Purdy and hurt his ability to reach the over
Brock Purdy Over 28.5 passing touchdowns (-112)
This is another bet that really could go either way and for many of the same reasons as the Purdy yardage total wager. However, I feel slightly more comfortable backing Purdy to reach the over for this prop. There are two main reasons for this. The first is that opposing defenses will likely go to great lengths in order to prevent McCaffrey from beating them in the red zone. They will stack the box with 7 or more defenders and force Purdy to put the ball in the air in order to put points on the board.
Kyle Shanahan is smart, and he isn’t going to want to play right into the opponent's game plan. Shanahan will certainly give McCaffrey some touches in the red zone, particularly inside of the five-yard line. In the intermediate area, though, Shanahan will likely give Purdy every opportunity to throw touchdowns. Purdy won’t be alone in this, though. Shanahan is one of the best offensive coaches in the world, and he’s an incredibly creative play-caller. He’ll make sure to design plays where Purdy can be successful.
Also, another difference between this bet and the yardage total bet is the role that McCaffrey will play. In the open field, McCaffrey will likely get most of his touches as a traditional running back taking handoffs. In the red zone, though, the 49ers are more likely to use McCaffrey as a receiver. That’s because utilizing McCaffrey as a pass catcher out of the backfield will blunt the impact of opponents stacking the box and this strategy will force defensive coordinators to alter their game plan. If there’s one thing that Shanahan loves to do, it’s to get opposing coordinators off-balance. This will give Purdy plenty of chances to put points on the board.
