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The Atlanta Braves will continue their three-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday at PNC Park. It will be a National League showdown in Pittsburgh as we continue our MLB odds series with a Braves-Pirates prediction and pick.
Braves-Pirates Projected Starters
A.J. Smith-Shawver vs. Andrew Heaney
A.J. Smith-Shawver (2-2) with a 3.00 ERA
Last Start: Smith-Shawver was elite in his last outing, hurling eight shutout, one-hit innings while striking out five and walking four in a win over the Cincinnati Reds.
Away Splits: Smith-Shawver is 1-1 with a 3.77 ERA in three starts on the road.
Andrew Heaney (2-3) with a 3.18 ERA.
Last Start: Heaney struggled mightily in his previous outing, allowing four earned runs on eight hits while striking out three and walking four in a loss to the San Diego Padres.
Home Splits: Heaney has been average at home, going 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA in four starts at PNC Park.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Pirates Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+118)
Moneyline: -138
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-142)
Moneyline: +118
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
How to Watch Braves vs. Pirates
Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05 PM PT
TV: FDSSO
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
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Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Braves have hovered around the .500 mark this season. Ultimately, they have not been able to go on a run yet and are still looking for that consistency. This has resulted in mediocrity, as they still await the return of Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna from long-term injuries. Yet, the game goes on, and the Braves need to get things going, and there is one place to start.
The Braves need their offense to awaken. Significantly, they are 20th in batting average, 13th in home runs, and 14th in slugging percentage, while ranking 19th in on-base percentage and runs.
Austin Riley remains consistent and leads the Braves in hits and home runs. Meanwhile, Matt Olson has had an up-and-down season, batting just .229 but bashing six home runs with 20 RBIs. Marcell Ozuna had a game-winning hit recently, and is currently batting .276 with five home runs, 13 RBIs, and 16 runs.
Smith-Shawver will make his first career start against the Pirates. Notably, he will try to continue his hot pitching. When Smith-Shawver exits the game, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 13th in team ERA. Despite his struggles, Raisel Iglesias is still the closer, having six saves so far.
The Braves will cover the spread if their top three hitters can make good contact and drive runners home. Then, they need another great performance from Smith-Shawver.
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Pirates have had another horrible start and look like they are on another journey to the bottom of the cellar. After firing Derek Shelton, the Pirates will have a new manager and hope to turn this flailing season around. They hope to pull themselves out of the rut and get this slumping offense going. The offense ranks 27th in batting average, 25th in on-base percentage, 28th in home runs, and 29th in runs and on-base percentage.
Ke'Bryan Hayes has bounced back after a struggling 2024 campaign. He leads the Pirates in hits and continues to pace this offense. Meanwhile, O'Neil Cruz has been a basher, leading the Pirates in home runs. But the Pirates need more from others in this lineup. Unfortunately, they have not had the production they need, and it has resulted in an offense that has continued to struggle.
Heaney has struggled in his two career starts against the Braves. So far, he is 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA. When Heaney exits the game, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 20th in team ERA. Despite some struggles from the bullpen, Dennis Santana is the closer, notching three saves with a 1.26 ERA.
The Pirates will cover the spread if O'Neil and Hayes can club some hits together while the rest of the lineup makes good contact. Then, they need Heaney to avoid making critical mistakes against some of the top hitters in this lineup.
Final Braves-Pirates Prediction & Pick
The Braves are 17-20 against the spread, while the Pirates are 12-26. Additionally, the Braves are 8-11 against the spread on the road, while the Pirates are 6-13 against the spread at home.
The rookie was amazing in his last start for the Braves. He faces a struggling Pirates team that has not put it together. Heaney has also struggled in his outings against the Braves. Because of these factors, I can see the Braves running away with it after getting some hits off Heaney.
Final Braves-Pirates Prediction & Pick:Braves -1.5 (+118)
