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It is Independence Day baseball as the St. Louis Cardinals visit the Miami Marlins. It is now time to continue our MLB odds series with a Cardinals-Marlins prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Coming off being swept by the Braves, the Marlins desperately wanted to get back into the win column yesterday. The Marlins got to work early, scoring two runs in the first inning off Miles Mikolas. The Cardinals would claw back though, with a Lars Nootbaar RBI single in the second and a Willson Contreras home run in the third to tie the game. Paul DeJong would give the Cardinals the lead in the sixth inning and Nolan Arenado would add to it with a sacrifice fly in the seventh. The Marlins did not give up though, scoring three times in the bottom of the seventh to take the 5-4 lead, and ultimately the victory.
The loss drops the Cardinals to 35-49 on the season, 10.5 games behind Milwaukee and Cincinnati in the division. Meanwhile, the Marlins have won six of their last ten and sit at 49-37 on the year. While they are nine games back of the Braves, the Marlins are in the first position in the wild card race.
Here are the Cardinals-Marlins MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Cardinals-Marlins Odds
St. Louis Cardinals:+1.5 (-146)
Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+122)
Over: 8.5 (-120)
Under: 8.5 (-102)
How To Watch Cardinals vs. Marlins
TV: BSMW/BSFL
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 1:10 PM ET/ 10:10 AM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
The Cardinal's offense has been slightly above average all year. They are 12th in runs scored, 13th in batting average, tenth in on-base percentage, and eighth in slugging this year. Nolan Arenado drove in his 55th RBI last night, which leads the team and is tied for 13th in the majors. He has been hot as of late as well. Arenado has five RBIs and a home run while batting .421 over the last week. He has also scored four times in the last week.
Scoring runs has been a big theme for the Cardinals bats as of late. Of the 14 different players who have taken an at-bat in the past seven days for the Cardinals, only Oscar Mercado has not scored a run. He also has just two at-bats in the last week. Lars Nootbaar has been scoring a lot in the last week. He has scored five times in the last week while hitting just .217. He has hit a home run and a double in the last week as well.
While Arenado has been hot, and Nootbaar has been scoring, Paul Goldschmidt has been driving in runs. Goldschmidt has six RBIs over the last week, while he has hit two home runs and batted .308. For the season, Goldschmidt is 19th in batting vaerage and 20th in OPS, leading the team in both categories.
On the hill, today for the Cardinals will be Adam Wainwright. Wainwright is 3-3 on the season with a 7.45 ERA. His last two starts were both terrible. Last time out he went just 1.2 innings giving up six hits and six runs to the Astros. The time before that was seven runs in just three innings to the Cubs. In June, Wainwright made five starts and went 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins' offense needs to figure out how to consistently score some runs. They have scored just 13 runs in their last five games, as opposed to 23 runs in the five-game span before that. They will also need to figure out how to do it without Jazz Chisholm, as he is back on the IL with an oblique injury. He had been hitting well. In his six games after coming back from his last trip to the IL, Chisholm was hitting .348. He also had driven in five RBIs and hit two home runs.
The Marlins will now need to lean on others to drive in runs, such as Jorge Soler. Soler is tied for fifth in the majors with 22 home runs on the season. He was fairly solid throughout June as well. He hit .238 on the month, while driving in 12 and hitting five home runs. It has been a rough patch for him as of late though. He is hitting just .185 with a home run and two RBIs in his last seven games.
The same could be said about Bryan De La Cruz. De La Cruz drove in 20 runs with the help of two home runs and seven doubles in June. He also hit .255 for the month. The last seven games have been tough. He is hitting just .192 in his last seven games with a home run and an RBI. Even Luis Arraez is not hitting great. He has seen his batting average drop to .388, while he has hit just .276 over the last week.
Jesus Luzardo will be on the mound for the Marlins today. He is 6-5 on the season with a 3.53 ERA. Last time out against the Red Sox he was solid. He went 6.1 innings and gave up three hits with no runs scored. He has not allowed a run in each of his last two starts. In June, Luzardo went 2-2 with a 3.28 ERA, and four starts giving up two or fewer runs. He has also struck out nine batters in each of his last two starts.
Final Cardinals-Marlins Prediction & Pick
The Marlins has to scratch and claw to get back into the game last night. They did so and it should hopefully spark some things today. With Wainwright going for the Cardinals today, there should be plenty of runs scored. The Marlins have the edge on offense and in the pitching match-up in this one. If the Marlins repeat the timely hitting they had yesterday, they will win. They went 3-6 with runners in scoring position yesterday. The Marlins went just 3-14 in the entire series with the Braves. Arraez gets a few hits today, and Soler drives in two, all leading to a Marlins victory.
Final Cardinals-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Marlins -1.5 (+122)
