Noche UFC: Diego Lopes versus Jean Silva continues with the prelims with a fight between Claudio Puelles and Joaquim Silva in the lightweight division at Noche UFC on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Puelles-Silva prediction and pick.
Claudio Puelles (12-4) arrives at Noche UFC looking to rebound from back-to-back losses, most recently dropping a split decision to Fares Ziam in February 2024. Before that, Puelles suffered a TKO defeat to Dan Hooker, but remains a submission threat with three UFC kneebar finishes on his record.
Joaquim Silva (13-5) enters Noche UFC coming off a competitive decision loss to Drakkar Klose in May 2024, where his durability and striking were on display. Prior to that, Silva edged out a hard-fought win over Clay Guida, maintaining his reputation for power and finishing ability as he faces Puelles.
Here are the Noche UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
Noche UFC odds: Claudio Puelles-Joaquim Silva odds
Claudio Puelles: -112
Joaquim Silva: -108
Over 2.5 rounds: -145
Under 2.5 rounds: +114
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Why Claudio Puelles will win
- Last Fight: (L) Fares Ziam – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 9 (2 KO/TKO/7 SUB)
Claudio Puelles can defeat Joaquim Silva at Noche UFC by leaning on his dynamic submission game and superior ground skills. Puelles is known for his slick kneebar finishes—he owns three of them in UFC competition—and thrives against opponents who leave openings during scrambles and transitions.
While Silva is a capable striker with proven power, his takedown defense has been exploited by top-level grapplers in the past. If Puelles successfully pressures forward, closes distance, and drags Silva to the mat, he can quickly turn the fight in his favor by threatening with leg locks or working to dominant positions.
On the feet, Puelles has developed a serviceable striking game, but his route to victory is to minimize risk and force Silva into defensive wrestling exchanges. As Silva tires from defending repeated attacks, opportunities will open for Puelles to pursue submissions or control time en route to winning rounds.
If Puelles maintains composure and sticks to a disciplined game plan focused on grappling, he stands an excellent chance of neutralizing Silva’s power and imposing his Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Expect Puelles to chase takedowns, hunt for submissions, and outwork Silva to get back in the win column.
Why Joaquim Silva will win
- Last Fight: (L) Drakkar Klose – DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 10 (7 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Joaquim Silva’s most significant advantages against his opponent at Noche UFC are his striking power and well-rounded finishing instincts. Silva averages over three significant strikes landed per minute and has finished ten of his thirteen career victories by KO or TKO, making him the clear aggressor in stand-up exchanges.
If Silva establishes his jab and mixes in heavy leg kicks, he can punish Puelles at range and disrupt any rhythm the Peruvian attempts to build. Puelles has struggled with heavy strikers in the past, and Silva’s ability to absorb punishment while returning fire gives him an edge in protracted battles.
Takedown defense will be crucial, and Silva’s recent fights have shown improved hips and urgency in returning to his feet. If he survives early grappling attempts, Silva’s pace and cardio could wear on Puelles, triggering mistakes and defensive lapses from the submission artist.
Expect Silva to pressure Puelles, wisely use his hands and feet to keep the fight standing, and capitalize on openings with powerful combinations. With his finishing experience and stamina, Silva can force a late stoppage or earn a decision by outworking Puelles in the critical striking exchanges.
Final Claudio Puelles-Joaquim Silva prediction & pick
Claudio Puelles vs. Joaquim Silva shapes up as a classic grappler-versus-striker showdown at Noche UFC. Puelles’ clearest path to victory is to bring the action to the mat, where his submission work—including multiple kneebar finishes in the UFC—gives him a dangerous edge if Silva gets careless during transitions or scrambles.
Silva, meanwhile, holds the upper hand when the fight stays on the feet. His knockout power, particularly in early rounds, poses a threat to his opponent, who has struggled when pressured by hard-hitting strikers. If Silva maintains distance, utilizes heavy leg kicks and crisp boxing, he can keep Puelles out of rhythm and accumulating damage.
The key to this bout will be Silva’s ability to defend takedowns and avoid extended ground battles. As the fight wears on, Silva’s superior cardio and finishing instincts could allow him to push the pace and test Puelles’ durability. On the other hand, if Puelles can chain his wrestling, he could neutralize Silva’s striking effectiveness.
Expect Silva to survive Puelles’ early grappling, keep it standing, and score a decision or late TKO win.
Final Claudio Puelles-Joaquim Silva Prediction & Pick: Joaquim Silva (-108), Over 2.5 Rounds (-145)
