UFC Perth: Carlos Ulberg versus Dominick Reyes continues with the prelims with a fight between Colby Thicknesse and Josias Musasa in the bantamweight division at UFC Perth on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Thicknesse-Musasa prediction and pick.
Colby Thicknesse (7-1) enters UFC Perth off a competitive decision loss in his debut to Aleksandre Topuria, showing sharp boxing and composure over three rounds. Before that, the Australian posted a solid regional run, flashing volume striking and defensive awareness that now set the stage for his bout with Josias Musasa.
Josias Musasa (8-1) heads to UFC Perth off a first-round rear-naked choke loss to Carlos Vera in March 2025, snapping his undefeated streak and exposing defensive vulnerabilities in scrambles. Prior, he earned a split decision over Otari Tanzilovi on Contender Series, showcasing crisp striking and resilience coming into this matchup against Colby Thicknesse.
Here are the UFC Perth Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Perth odds: Colby Thicknesse-Josias Musasa odds
Colby Thicknesse: +124
Josias Musasa: -148
Over 2.5 rounds: -110
Under 2.5 rounds: -110
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Colby Thicknesse will win
- Last Fight: (L) Aleksandre Topuria – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 (2 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Colby Thicknesse’s best route to victory against Josias Musasa at UFC Perth lies in his adaptability and proven finishing skills. Thicknesse has demonstrated the ability to blend his striking and grappling, moving fluidly between phases and capitalizing on opponents’ defensive lapses—key qualities when facing an unpredictable striker like Musasa.
Musasa’s lone career loss was by rear-naked choke, exposing a potential opening on the ground. Thicknesse is dangerous in scrambles and submissions, with recent first-round finishes via strikes and chokes, making him a threat if the fight leaves the feet. His high pace and willingness to chain attacks can frustrate Musasa’s rhythm and prevent him from finding a highlight-reel moment.
Should Thicknesse utilize smart pressure and maintain defensive focus, he can exploit Musasa’s tendency to overcommit on the feet, setting up takedowns or counters. Keeping Musasa off balance with threats of level changes and clinch attacks limits his knockout opportunities and creates more paths to victory for Thicknesse.
By leaning on his well-roundedness and fight IQ, Thicknesse has a strong chance to outwork Musasa across three rounds or secure a finish on the mat. Expect Thicknesse’s composure and technical variety to earn him the win in Perth.
Why Josias Musasa will win
- Last Fight: (L) Carlos Vera – SUB R1
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 7 (7 KO/TKO)
Josias Musasa’s superior raw power and explosive striking give him a clear path to victory over Colby Thicknesse at UFC Perth. Musasa has produced highlight-reel finishes on the regional circuit, including a flying knee knockout and a run of head-turning stoppages that prove his danger whenever the fight stays standing.
Where Thicknesse sometimes relies on transitions and scrambling, Musasa thrives in chaotic exchanges, able to capitalize on mistakes with finishing instincts. If Musasa maintains range, avoids clinch entanglements, and presses his striking advantage, he can keep Thicknesse on the defensive and chase a brutal KO in the first half of the fight.
Musasa’s high output and ability to shift momentum quickly put extra pressure on Thicknesse, who’s shown occasional vulnerability to power shots. Targeting gaps in Thicknesse’s striking defense, Musasa can unleash combinations that test his opponent’s chin and composure if the exchanges are prolonged or frantic.
Should Musasa keep the bout upright and prevent Thicknesse from settling into a rhythm, he has the athletic tools to finish the fight spectacularly. Expect Musasa’s explosiveness and finishing ability to be the difference if he is able to dictate the pace at UFC Perth.
Final Colby Thicknesse-Josias Musasa prediction & pick
This bantamweight matchup at UFC Perth between Colby Thicknesse and Josias Musasa is a clash of well-rounded versatility against explosive finishing power. Thicknesse enters coming off his first professional defeat but remains a dynamic threat with strong submissions and technical striking, while Musasa rebounds from his own first loss and boasts a reputation for highlight-reel knockouts.
The key for Thicknesse is to control range and dictate the tempo, avoiding wild pocket exchanges and utilizing his wrestling as a weapon to put Musasa on the back foot. If he can mix his attacks—especially smart clinch work and ground transitions—Thicknesse has a path to expose the vulnerability Musasa showed in his UFC debut loss by rear-naked choke. His composure under fire and fight IQ could frustrate Musasa’s explosive tendencies, gradually banking control time and wearing down the striker as the fight progresses.
However, Musasa’s dynamic athleticism and penchant for creating chaos remain ever-present threats. If he connects early with one of his big shots or finds the timing on a flying knee, he could end the fight in spectacular fashion. Musasa’s confidence in striking exchanges and his willingness to press forward make him always dangerous, particularly in the early stages of each round.
Ultimately, the prediction leans toward Thicknesse by decision or late submission. His ability to mix phases, neutralize Musasa’s most dangerous spots, and remain technically sound through adversity should steer him to a hard-fought but well-earned win in Perth.
Final Colby Thicknesse-Josias Musasa Prediction & Pick: Colby Thicknesse (+124), Over 2.5 Rounds (-110)
