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The No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers (17-1) visit the Minnesota Gophers (7-9) on Thursday night. Action tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET. Below we continue our College Basketball odds series with a Purdue-Minnesota prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Purdue has won four consecutive games and sits at 6-1 and in first place in the Big 10. The Boilermakers covered 41% of their games while 67% went under the projected point total. Minnesota has lost three of their last four games and sits at 1-5 and in last place in the Big 10. The Gophers covered 40% of their games while 69% went under. These teams last met in early December when Purdue came away with an 89-70 home victory.
Here are the Purdue-Minnesota college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Purdue-Minnesota Odds
Purdue: -13.5 (-110)
Minnesota: +13.5 (-110)
Over: 133.5 (-110)
Under: 133.5 (-110)
How To Watch Purdue vs. Minnesota
TV: ESPN2
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Purdue Could Cover The Spread
Purdue has been one of the biggest surprises in College Basketball this season as they have just a single loss 18 games into the season. The third-ranked Boilermakers enter tonight fresh off a one-point win over Michigan State and favored by double-digits against a team they already beat by 19. The advanced metrics favor Purdue as they rank No. 5 in KenPom and No. 4 in NET. Purdue's seven Quad 1 wins lead the country. The Boilermakers currently project as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Purdue features a strong defense that ranks 19th in points allowed (61.2 PPG). They do a great job defending without fouling as they allow the fewest made and attempted free throws in the country. The Boilermakers are an excellent rebounding team, ranking eighth in rebounding (39.8 RPG) and first in rebound rate. Offensively, they rely primarily on getting to the basket as they rank 36th in two-point percentage (55%) but 224th in three-point percentage (33%). Because of how often they're attacking the rim, the Boilermakers get to the free throw line a lot as they rank 23rd in made free throws per game (16.3).
The Boilermakers are led by burley center Zach Edey. Edey is the heavy favorite to win the Wooden Award with FanDuel listing him as a -360 favorite. Edey finds himself in the midst of a truly dominant season. The 7'4″, 295 lbs. center ranks fourth in the country in scoring (21.9 PPG) and second in rebounding (13.4 RPG). He is incredibly efficient at scoring the ball, ranking third in the Big 10 in field goal percentage (61%). In addition to leading the conference in both scoring and rebounding, Edey ranks second in blocks (2.2 BPG). Edey is coming off a monster game against Michigan State where he scored 32 points, pulled down 17 rebounds, and blocked two shots. He was absolutely dominant in their earlier win over Minnesota, scoring 31 points and amassing a season-high 22 rebounds.
Why Minnesota Could Cover The Spread
Minnesota hasn't found much momentum this season as they've yet to win more than two games in a row. They're coming off a crushing 18-point home loss to Illinois and have lost three of their last four games. Minnesota ranks No. 187 in KenPom and No. 211 in NET. They've gone just 1-7 in Quad 1 and 2 matchups and have two Quad 3 losses. As a result, the Gophers do not project to make the NCAA Tournament.
Minnesota is the definition of a grit-and-grind team as they rank 304th in pace of play. The Gophers are average defensively, ranking 125th in points allowed (68.1 Opp. PPG). They do a good job defending without fouling – something that could prove crucial against Purdue's mammoth center. Offensively, Minnesota struggles to score the ball as they rank 314th in scoring (64.4 PPG). They do, however, distribute the ball as they assist on the 25th-highest percentage of their baskets (59%).
Minnesota is led by sophomore forward Dawson Garcia. Garcia has finally found his home after stops at Marquette and North Carolina as he averages a career-high 15.6 PPG in addition to his 6.6 RPG. He's been red-hot over his last seven games, averaging 18.6 PPG. That being said, Garcia struggled mightily in their earlier loss to Purdue when he scored just six points on 3/8 shooting.
If there is an X-factor for the Gophers tonight it is point guard Ta'lon Cooper. Cooper ranks third on the team in scoring with 11 PPG and third in the Big 10 in assists with 6.1 APG. The Morehead State transfer is lethal from beyond the arc as he averages 1.6 made threes per game at a 56% clip. He was one of the few bright spots in their earlier loss to Purdue as he scored 15 points, shot 3/4 from beyond the arc, and dished out eight assists.
Final Purdue-Minnesota Prediction & Pick
In a matchup between the first and last-place teams in the Big 10, I actually like the home underdogs to cover a hefty spread. Despite Purdue's record, they've been unreliable against the spread – a trend I see continuing tonight.
Final Purdue-Minnesota Prediction & Pick: Minnesota +13.5 (-110)
