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We're still a couple months away from the return of college football, but the anticipation is building across the country with spring practices in the books. There's plenty of optimism surrounding the Air Force football team following back-to-back 10-win seasons. Below, we continue our college football odds series with an over/under win total prediction for Air Force.
Troy Calhoun has been the head coach for the last 16 years, boasting a record of 121-78 (.608), with 12 bowl appearances. Air Force has cracked the AP Top 25 twice during that stretch (2010, 2019).
The Falcons were soaring early on last season, surviving against Navy and blowing out the likes of Northern Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada, but they came up short on the road against Wyoming and its balanced offense.
Air Force's hopes of contending for a conference title and long-shot New Year's bowl were quickly dashed in October, with hard-fought losses at Utah State and at home against Boise State. But the defense more than held its own, as it did all season.
For many years, the Falcons consistently won with a prolific and efficient ground game. That's still true, to an extent. Despite producing the worst passing attack in the country (70.5 passing yards per game), Air Force still had college football's top rushing offense by a mile last year, averaging 326.7 yards per game on the ground from its triple-option attack.
But they're now winning games by stifling opposing offenses even more, as the Falcons' defense gave up the fewest total yards in the country last year and finished second in the nation against the pass, ninth against the run, and third in points allowed. Despite size disadvantages in the trenches, the Falcons also produced a strong pass rush and were elite in the red zone, allowing just a 43 percent red zone touchdown rate (fourth-best in the nation).
They did all of this despite the departure of defensive coordinator and former Air Force linebacker John Rudzinski, who took the same role at Virginia after serving on the Falcons' staff since 2010. Rudzinski was replaced by former Air Force quarterback Brian Knorr, who previously spent 10 years in various roles on the Falcons' coaching staff.
Air Force capped off last season on a high note, dominating New Mexico, securing the Commander-in-Chief's trophy for the first time since 2019 in a victory over Army, and comfortably beating Colorado State and San Diego State despite only completing one pass on four combined attempts in those two conference matchups. The Falcons then dominated Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Can the Falcons overcome some of their key departures and contend for the Mountain West crown? Without further ado, let's take a look at Air Force's over/under odds.
Here are the latest college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Football Odds: Air Force Over/Under Win Total
Over 8.5 Wins: -105
Under 8.5 Wins: -115
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Why Air Force Could Hit The Under
The biggest factor in breaking down Air Force's win total prediction is centered around the program's biggest obstacle—overcoming the departures of quarterback Haaziq Daniels and running back Brad Roberts. Not only did they lead the Falcons' ground game last year, but Roberts was also college football's leading rusher with 1,728 yards and 17 touchdowns on 345 carries (5.0 YPC) last season. Three of the Falcons' next four leading rushers from last year are no longer on the roster, either.
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Like the other service academies, Air Force's offense relies extremely heavily on its running game, so those departures are going to be daunting challenges for the Falcons.
The offensive line could be the saving grace on that side of the ball, as guard Wesley Ndago and tackles Kaleb Holcomb and Everett Smalley are contenders for all-conference honors and provide continuity for an offense that faces a significant overhaul. Despite his smaller frame, Smalley, particularly stands out as a phenomenal run-blocker at left tackle.
Fullback John Lee Eldridge III led the nation with an eye-popping 7.7 yards per carry among qualified players with at least 75 carries last year, but he's the only familiar weapon returning to the Falcons' offense.
Air Force also inevitably struggled in the recruiting rankings but ended up with the most commits (45). The only other school even in the Falcons' stratosphere was another service academy, Army, with 38.
Why Air Force Could Hit The Over
The Falcons were left off of our list of way-too-early college football playoff rankings heading into the summer, but none of their opponents made the list, either. In fact, all of their opponents have lower implied win totals.
That includes San Diego State, who also presents a strong run game and defense. Boise State is also the favorite to win the Mountain West after capturing the conference crown in five of the last six seasons.
As indicated above, the biggest factor in evaluating Air Force's over/under win total hinges on the ability to overcome the key departures on offense. But fortunately, most of the starters return on the Falcons' excellent defense.
Peyton Zdroik and Jayden Thiergood provide a very solid, albeit undersized duo up front, with help from linebackers Alec Mock, Johnathan Youngblood, and Bo Richter, who each step into more prominent roles. Safety Trey Taylor, a second-team All-Mountain West selection last season, headlines a strong secondary along with Jayden Goodwin and Camby Goff.
Final Air Force Over/Under Pick & Prediction
Currently facing the third-best odds to win the Mountain West, Air Force is well-equipped to handle its schedule and produce nine-plus wins for the fourth time in five years. An early season slate that includes Robert Morris, Sam Houston, Utah State, and San Jose State certainly helps. As the season progresses, health, depth, and leadership will be key factors for Air Force's over/under odds.
Final Air Force Over/Under Pick & Prediction: Over 8.5 Wins: -105
