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The Texas A&M Aggies take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Check out our college football odds series for our Texas A&M Mississippi State prediction and pick.
The Texas A&M Aggies are surviving. They aren't dominating, but they are winning, and they have done a good job of rebounding from a brutal loss to Appalachian State. The Aggies are getting great performances from their defense. They held Miami to just nine points in Week 3, and they limited Arkansas — which had scored 44 points against South Carolina in Week 2 — to only 21 points in a big Week 4 victory which has dramatically increased the odds that A&M can finish second in the SEC West for yet another season.
The big moment of A&M's 23-21 win over Arkansas last weekend was a fumble recovery near the Aggies' own goal line. They were able to run the fumble recovery back for a length-of-the-field touchdown. The 14-point swing on one play proved decisive. Arkansas' offense never really recovered from that play, scoring just seven points for the remainder of the game after that lightning bolt from the A&M defense. Jimbo Fisher is still struggling to get his offense to perform at a high level — that offense managed only 16 points against the Arkansas defense, and has struggled to produce 20 points per game this season — but the defense is getting the job done. That defense might be able to carry this team a longer distance than many people imagined at the start of the season.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs won at Texas A&M last year, and they did so with defense in a workmanlike 26-22 game. If the Bulldogs are going to beat A&M this year, they might have to score a few more points. A&M's offense is bound to get better at some point. The Aggies are not going to score under 20 offensive points every game (last week was 23 points for the team, but the defense scored seven and the offense scored 16 versus Arkansas). Mississippi State blew a 13-point lead to LSU a few weeks ago. Coach Mike Leach is known as an offensive guru, but his offenses have largely been kept under wraps by SEC defenses. MSU couldn't build on its lead in that LSU game in Baton Rouge. The offense just can't hit deep strikes down the field in the passing game. Mississippi State's ceiling as a program will rise when the Bulldogs figure out how to make their passing game more lethal. It's something Leach was able to do at Texas Tech and Washington State, but he hasn't been able to do it at Mississippi State. He needs to.
Here are the Texas A&M-Mississippi State NCAA Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Texas A&M-Mississippi State Odds
Texas A&M Aggies: +3.5 (-102)
Mississippi State Bulldogs: -3.5 (-120)
Over: 44.5 (-115)
Under: 44.5 (-105)
Why Texas A&M Could Cover the Spread
The Mississippi State offense is unreliable. Texas A&M has been making games low-scoring and ugly this season, and in the last two weeks, that approach has worked. A&M won't win a track meet. It will win if its defense continues to play well. Mississippi State has not earned the benefit of the doubt at this point in the season. A&M's defense is probably the best unit on the field in this game. The Aggies are flowing with confidence after their huge win over Arkansas.
Why Mississippi State Could Cover the Spread
The Texas A&M offense continues to struggle. Scoring just 16 points against Arkansas after managing just 17 against Miami just won't cut it. Mississippi State contained A&M's offense last year in College Station. It can certainly do the same at home in Starkville.
Final Texas A&M-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick
This game is a total coin flip, between two unreliable offenses and two teams which are both several notches worse than Alabama in the SEC West. If you want to flip a coin, go ahead, but smart bettors should stay away and look for a live-betting opportunity. If you have to pick one team, pick the team which is getting some points. That's A&M.
Final Texas A&M-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick: Texas A&M +3.5
