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The Chicago Cubs will begin a three-game series with the New York Mets on Friday at Citi Field. It's a National League showdown in New York as we continue our MLB odds series with a Cubs-Mets prediction and pick.
Cubs-Mets Projected Starters
Jameson Taillon vs. Clay Holmes
Jameson Taillon (2-1) with a 3.86 ERA
Last Start: Taillon went six innings in his last outing, allowing two earned runs on three hits while striking out five and walking one in a win over the Milwaukee Brewers.
Away Splits: Taillon has struggled on the road, going 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA in four starts away from home.
Clay Holmes (4-1) with a 2.95 ERA
Last Start: Holmes went six innings, allowing three earned runs on eight hits while striking out three in a win in his previous outing against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Home Splits: Holmes is 1-0 with a 3.97 EEA in two starts at Citi Field.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Mets Odds
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-162)
Moneyline: +136
New York Mets: -1.5 (+134)
Moneyline: -162
Over: 7.5 (-124)
Under: 7.5 (+102)
How to Watch Cubs vs. Mets
Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10 PM PT
TV: MLB Network
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
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Why The Cubs Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Cubs are leading the National League Central and finding creative ways to win ballgames. Notably, they have emerged as the frontrunners in this division, and even potentially contenders in the NL.
Their hitting has been excellent, as the Cubs rank fourth in batting average, fifth in on-base percentage, first in runs, and third in home runs and slugging percentage.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has thrived, batting .265 with nine home runs, 27 RBIs, and 29 runs. Meanwhile, Kyle Tucker continues to pound the baseball, while hitting .284 with nine home runs, 31 RBIs, and 30 runs. Seiya Suzuki has also been productive, batting .252 with nine home runs, 31 RBIs, and 20 runs. Also, even Carson Kelly has emerged, hitting .348 with eight home runs, 23 RBIs, and 17 runs.
Taillon has dominated the Mets in his career, going 4-0 with a 1.96 ERA in 41.1 innings against them, including two elite starts last season. He has been great against them and will look to replicate his past performances. When Taillon exits, he will turn it over to a bullpen that ranks just 23rd in team ERA. Ryan Pressly is the closer, but has struggled with a 7.62 ERA, and two other relievers have two blown saves each.
The Cubs will cover the spread if their offense continues to hum and drive runners home. Then, they need Taillon to pitch well enough to give the bullpen some breathing room.
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mets lead the NL East and continue finding ways to beat opponents while staying consistent. Significantly, their offense has been one of the main factors. The Mets currently rank 10th in batting average, eighth in on-base percentage, ninth in runs, 11th in home runs, and eighth in slugging percentage.
Pete Alonso continues to hit the baseball, and is still one of the biggest threats in baseball with a .328 batting average, nine home runs, 34 RBIs, and 26 runs. Meanwhile, Juan Soto has exploded to start the season and is now batting .261 with seven home runs, 17 RBIs, and 29 runs. Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo also continue to hit the baseball. So far, all four have had productive games and look to replicate that effort in this series opener.
Holmes has had limited experience against the Cubs. Therefore, he does not have the knowledge that most pitchers do, which could be a good thing in the long run. When Holmes exits the game, he will turn it over to a bullpen that ranks sixth in team ERA. Reed Garrett has 10 holds as the setup man, and Edwin Diaz has eight saves.
The Mets will cover the spread if Holmes can avoid making mistakes down the heart of the plate. Then, they need good hitting from Alonso, Soto, Lindor, and Nimmo, and not to let Taillon get comfortable.
Final Cubs-Mets Prediction & Pick
The Cubs are 20-18 against the spread, while the Mets are 21-17. Additionally, the Cubs are 11-8 against the spread on the road, while the Mets are 10-6 against the spread at home.
Both teams have pitchers who have had moderate success this season. Also, both teams are slowly forming into contenders, each leading their divisions at the time of publication. But I don't like Taillon on the road. Yet, he has dominated the Mets. Because of this, I think the Cubs get the job done, and the Mets don't. I will roll with the Cubs to cover the spread on the road.
Final Cubs-Mets Prediction & Pick: Cubs +1.5 (-162)
