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UFC Vegas 104: Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze continues on the main card with a fight between Diyar Nurgozhay and Brendson Ribeiro in the light heavyweight division. Nurgozhay comes into his UFC debut with wins in all 10 of his professional bouts, meanwhile Ribeiro came away with the split-decision victory his last time out. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Nurgozhay-Ribeiro prediction and pick.
Diyar Nurghozhay (10-0) secured his UFC contract with a second-round TKO on the Contender Series. Now, Nurgozhay has his eyes set on his UFC debut as he looks to remain unbeaten when he takes on fellow Contender Series alumni Brendson Ribeiro this weekend.
Brendson Ribeiro (16-7) was able to secure his first UFC victory with a split-decision against Caio Machado his last time out. Now, Ribeiro looks to continue his momentum when he welcomes Diyar Nurgozhay to the UFC this weekend.
Here are the UFC Vegas 104 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 104 Odds: Diyar Nurgozhay-Brendson Ribeiro Odds
Diyar Nurgozhay: -375
Brendson Ribeiro: +295
Over 1.5 rounds: -154
Under 1.5 rounds: +120
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Why Diyar Nurgozhay Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Bartosz Szewczyk – KO/TKO R2
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 8 (6 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
As UFC Vegas 104 approaches, all eyes are on the light heavyweight clash between the undefeated Diyar Nurgozhay and the experienced Brendson Ribeiro. Nurgozhay, with his perfect 10-0 record and impressive 87.5% knockout rate, enters the Octagon as a formidable force. The Kazakhstani fighter's explosive striking prowess, evidenced by his 3.52 significant strikes landed per minute and 100% takedown defense, poses a significant threat to Ribeiro's defense. Nurgozhay's ability to finish fights early, as demonstrated in his Contender Series debut, suggests that Ribeiro may struggle to weather the initial storm.
While Ribeiro brings more UFC experience to the table, his recent performances have been inconsistent, including losses to Zhang Mingyang and Magomed Gadzhiyasulov35. Nurgozhay's superior striking accuracy of 52.63% compared to Ribeiro's tendency to absorb damage could be the deciding factor in this matchup. Nurgozhay has shown remarkable adaptability, proving he can go the distance when necessary. With Nurgozhay's aggressive style and Ribeiro's history of being finished early, this bout has all the ingredients for another spectacular knockout, potentially catapulting Nurgozhay into the upper echelons of the light heavyweight division.
Why Brendson Ribeiro Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Caio Machado – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 17 (9 KO/TKO/6 SUB)
As UFC Vegas 104 approaches, the light heavyweight clash between Brendson Ribeiro and Diyar Nurgozhay is shaping up to be a potential upset in the making. While Nurgozhay enters as the favorite with his undefeated record, Ribeiro's experience and recent improvements could prove to be the deciding factors in this matchup. Ribeiro's victory over Caio Machado in his last outing demonstrated his ability to adapt and overcome tough opponents, showcasing his resilience and strategic acumen in the Octagon.
Ribeiro's significant reach advantage of 81 inches compared to Nurgozhay's 74 inches could be a game-changer, allowing him to control the distance and potentially neutralize Nurgozhay's striking1. Furthermore, Ribeiro's grappling prowess, averaging 1.27 takedowns per 15 minutes, could pose problems for Nurgozhay, who has yet to face a fighter of Ribeiro's caliber in the UFC. If Ribeiro can weather Nurgozhay's early storm and implement his grappling-heavy game plan, he has a real chance of securing a hard-fought decision or even a late stoppage. With the odds stacked against him, Ribeiro's underdog status at +295 may be just the motivation he needs to pull off a stunning victory and revitalize his UFC career.
Final Diyar Nurgozhay-Brendson Ribeiro Prediction & Pick
In the light heavyweight bout between Diyar Nurgozhay and Brendson Ribeiro at UFC Vegas 104, Nurgozhay's undefeated record and knockout power make him a formidable opponent. However, Ribeiro's experience and recent improvements could pose significant challenges. Ribeiro's reach advantage and grappling skills might allow him to control the distance and neutralize Nurgozhay's striking. Despite this, Nurgozhay's explosive power and aggressive style are likely to give Ribeiro trouble. If Nurgozhay can land a decisive blow early, he could secure a knockout victory. However, if Ribeiro can weather the storm and take the fight to the ground, his submission threats could become a major factor.
Diyar Nurgozhay comes away with the early round knockout in his UFC debut, as his raw power and aggression overwhelm Ribeiro's defenses. While Ribeiro's experience and grappling skills ensure the fight remains competitive, Nurgozhay's knockout potential makes him the favorite to emerge victorious. This bout has all the ingredients for an explosive finish, potentially catapulting Nurgozhay into the spotlight of the light heavyweight division.
Final Diyar Nurgozhay-Brendson Ribeiro Prediction & Pick: Diyar Nurgozhay (-375), Under 1.5 rounds (+120)
