Contender Series Week 5 continues with a fight between Felipe Franco and Freddy Vidal in the light heavyweight division on Tuesday. Check out our Contender Series odds series for our Franco-Vidal prediction and pick.
Felipe Franco (8-0) enters Week 5 of Contender Series boasting an undefeated record with four wins by KO/TKO and three by submission. His most recent fight was a dominant first-round submission over Murilo Magalhaes, keeping his perfect record intact as he faces Freddy Vidal next.
Freddy Vidal (3-0) brings an undefeated streak into the Contender Series, scoring first-round TKOs in his last two fights, most recently stopping Mike Lee in February. He’s yet to taste defeat as a pro, showing power and poise, with two knockouts and one decision win on his record.
UFC Contender Series Odds: Felipe Franco-Freddy Vidal Odds
Felipe Franco: -395
Freddy Vidal: +280
Over 1.5 Rounds: +190
Under 1.5 Rounds: -250
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Why Felipe Franco will win
- Last Fight: (W) Murilo Magalhaes – SUB R1
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 8 (5 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Felipe Franco owns a decisive edge in both finishing instinct and fight experience entering Week 5 of the Contender Series. Franco’s eight wins have all come by stoppage—five knockouts and three submissions—demonstrating his ability to threaten in every phase and adjust on the fly when a fight hits adversity.
Against Freddy Vidal, Franco’s superior grappling is likely to be the key. Vidal has shown impressive early power, but all his pro wins lack the depth of opposition or the submission threat Franco brings. Franco’s comfort in wild exchanges, as well as his proven ground attack, give him multiple avenues to victory.
Expect Franco to test Vidal’s still-developing takedown defense and look for opportunities in the scramble. If Vidal can’t keep the fight at range, Franco’s experience in high-pressure DWCS moments—having already faced tougher competition—will set him apart. Franco’s ability to switch between striking and submission threats should eventually force Vidal into a mistake.
Look for Franco to weather early pressure and take over as the fight unfolds, seizing any grappling opening to grab a submission or ground-and-pound finish. This versatility and composure make Franco the favorite to emerge with a contract this Tuesday.
Why Freddy Vidal will win
- Last Fight: (W) Anthony Wilson – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 3-0
- Finishes: 2 (2 KO/TKO)
Freddy Vidal’s fight-ending power gives him a live chance against Felipe Franco on Week 5 of the Contender Series. With two first-round knockouts in only three pro bouts, Vidal’s confidence and aggression on the feet create immediate danger for any opponent—especially one willing to trade in the pocket.
Franco’s wild style often leaves defensive holes, something Vidal can exploit with fast, accurate counters if Franco takes a reckless approach. Vidal’s energy and fresh chin—he’s never been stopped or taken deep—provide the foundation to absorb early adversity and push a relentless pace from the opening horn.
Unlike Franco’s past foes, Vidal hasn’t shown cracks under pressure, and he’s never tasted defeat. His ability to switch up angles and find openings could expose Franco, who sometimes hunts for finishes rather than defending intelligently.
Should Vidal stuff initial takedown attempts and keep Franco fighting outside, his heavy hands will be the deciding factor. Vidal’s short MMA résumé means there’s less tape for Franco’s camp to analyze, which could also play to the American’s advantage. A swift knockout or sustained striking dominance would signal Vidal’s arrival as a true prospect on this stage.
Final Felipe Franco-Freddy Vidal Prediction & Pick
This Contender Series matchup sets up a classic battle between experience and raw firepower. Felipe Franco holds the edge in professional experience and finishing versatility, coming in with a deeper and more varied resume of knockout and submission victories. Vidal, on the other hand, has made a statement with his ultra-fast knockout wins and comes in with the momentum and self-belief of an undefeated prospect.
Expect Franco to test Vidal with his wrestling and submission acumen early. He’ll be looking to drag the fight into deeper waters where Vidal’s lack of professional rounds may become apparent. If Franco can dictate the range and avoid big, looping shots, he’ll capitalize with his savvy and pressure.
However, Vidal’s explosiveness and untested potential create plenty of danger. If Franco gets drawn into a brawl, Vidal’s hands could change the narrative in an instant. Ultimately, the edge leans toward Franco’s experience and proven cage awareness.
Look for Franco to withstand an early storm, work to the mat, and eventually secure a submission late in the first or early second round.
Final Felipe Franco-Freddy Vidal Prediction & Pick: Felipe Franco (-395), Under 1.5 Rounds (-250)
