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Billy Napier enters a pivotal year at Florida, with the third-year head coach looking to break through after an 11-14 record in his first two seasons. The Gators are up next in our college football odds series with a Florida over/under win total prediction for the 2024 college football season.
To say that Napier's seat is hot would be an understatement. The fanbase wants to get back to the glory days of winning national championships under Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer, and that seems far away right now since the program has had just five double-digit-win seasons since winning it all in 2008.
Can the Gators turn it around, and in the process, save Napier's job?
Here are the College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Florida 2024 Win Total Odds
Over 4.5 Wins: (-152)
Under 4.5 Wins: (+124)
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Why Florida Will Hit the Over
Graham Mertz returns at quarterback to lead an offense that has all the tools to be successful.
His efficiency in 2023 was remarkable, as the former Wisconsin transfer completed 72.9 percent of his throws for 2,903 yards and 20 touchdowns. Even better, he had just three interceptions on 358 pass attempts.
Joining him in the QB room is the top-ranked quarterback and No. 3 overall player in the 2024 class. D.J. Lagway, a 6-3, 239-pound phenom from Texas, is a dual-threat quarterback with an incredible skill set. The expectation is that Florida will find ways to get him on the field despite Mertz being the starter heading into the season. He's just too good to be sitting on the sideline.
At running back, Montrell Johnson Jr. has rushed for at least 784 yards in his first three seasons in Gainesville, and he's now the clear No. 1 in the backfield after Travis Etienne (131 CARs, 753 YDs, 8 TDs) transferred to Georgia. However, it's worth noting that Johnson underwent minor knee surgery in early August, and his current status is “week to week” entering the season.
Meanwhile, the offensive line should be better, the defensive line is loaded with size, and the defense might be improved in every area. That's a great combination for a team looking to make a jump.
The improved talent and experience could make one wonder why Florida has such a low projected win total in 2024. The answer is obvious…
Why Florida Will Hit the Under
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You need not look too far to find the reason the Gators could disappoint.
That's because Florida has the toughest schedule in college football, per Phil Steele. There are a whopping eight games against preseason top 25 teams – No. 1 Georgia (neutral), No. 4 Texas (away), No. 6 Ole Miss (home), No. 10 Florida State (away), No. 13 LSU (home), No. 15 Tennessee (away), No. 19 Miami (home), and No. 20 Texas A&M (home).
Right now, the Gators would be underdogs in all eight of those matchups. That could change depending on how the season plays out for all those teams, but on paper, it might be one of the toughest schedules for any team in SEC history. Even UCF – coached by former Auburn coach Gus Malzahn – is a top-40 team nationally by most preseason projections.
The Johnson injury is also worth mentioning. He's week to week as of the preseason, and it's a hit to the offense should he miss actual games. The Week 1 matchup against Miami may be key to notching five or more wins, so having Johnson available is significant for Florida.
But really, this is all about the schedule, because a team with this much talent is rarely projected at such a low win total.
Final Florida 2024 Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
Things could spiral out of control in a hurry for the Gators given the schedule, but sometimes you just have to take a chance on a team's potential.
While there has been little confidence in Napier's ability to get the program back on track, he enters the season with the best roster he's had. The Gators pulled one big upset in 2023 by blowing out Tennessee, and they nearly scored a win at Missouri before losing on a game-winning field goal at the buzzer.
Only three of the games against preseason top 25 teams are on the road, so things set up nicely to grab a trademark upset or two.
The Gators would be favored in at least four games right off the bat, and betting on the talent to find a few more to secure a bowl bid – and another season for Napier – is the play.
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Final Florida 2024 Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 4.5 Wins: (-152)
