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It is time to continue our college football odds series with Florida-Florida State predictions and a pick. Find out how to watch Florida-Florida State.
The big college football rivalry game this weekend is in College Station, Texas, but this rivalry game in Tallahassee, Fla., will contain its own considerable degree of intrigue. Absolutely no one predicted that at the end of 2024, Florida coach Billy Napier would have more reason for optimism about his program heading into 2025 than Mike Norvell of Florida State. It's pretty simple: Norvell produced a 13-0 regular season in 2023. The Seminoles were snubbed for the College Football Playoff because of the injury to star quarterback Jordan Travis, but Norvell did a brilliant job of guiding his team through the season, including the final few games in which Travis was not available. Napier was floundering at Florida, and he did not start his 2024 season well. The idea that Napier would even survive the 2024 season was highly questionable in late September and early October.
That all changed over the past month. Florida has consistently played strong defense. When young quarterback D.J. Lagway has taken the field, he has shown how much upside he has. The freshman hasn't put all the pieces together, but he clearly shows signs of being able to develop into a special signal-caller. Florida's overall capacities have grown, and the Gators look like a team which could realistically become a threat in the 2025 SEC.
The Florida State football machine has completely broken down in 2024. It all started with Norvell's perplexing decision to grab Oregon State quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei in the transfer portal. It was a disaster. We didn't think Florida State would win the ACC, but we also didn't think the Seminoles would win only two games. This program went from 13-0 to rock bottom in one season. We don't ordinarily see a program collapse in the span of 12 months, but it has. Florida State fans are angry at Norvell and won't easily forgive him for this mess. The great 2023 season hasn't really bought him that much extra goodwill, and Norvell is clearly under pressure to get things right for 2025.
How will a rising Florida handle the status of being a heavy favorite against a broken and inept Florida State team which, just one year ago, was pursuing a national championship? It's one of the more interesting questions of Week 14 of the season.
Florida-Florida State Last Game – Matchup History
The last time these two teams met was in 2023. Florida State won, 24-15.
Overall Series: Florida leads the all-time series, 37-28-2.
Here are the Florida-Florida State College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Florida-Florida State Odds
Florida: -14.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -720
Florida State: +14.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +500
Over: 45.5 (-115)
Under: 45.5 (-105)
How to Watch Florida vs Florida State
Time: 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN2
Stream: fuboTV (Free trial)
Why Florida Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Florida State offense is going to be absolutely chewed up by the strong Florida defense. It's hard to see how Florida State will score anything more than 10 points in this game if Florida doesn't commit a big turnover or allow a long kick return. As long as the Gators avoid horrible mistakes, they should be able to win 27-10 or 31-10, which would be enough to cover.
Why Florida State Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Seminoles could lose at home to Florida by 14 points … and cover. That's wild. FSU is so distrusted in this game that merely coming somewhat close — not very close, but merely avoiding super-blowout territory — would be enough to cover. You have to jump at that.
Final Florida-Florida State Prediction & Pick
The lean is to Florida, but we're not fully trusting of the Gators' offense on the road at night in a rivalry game. Wait for a live play and see if you can get Florida minus a smaller number of points.
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Final Florida-Florida State Prediction & Pick: Florida -14.5
