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Bibee and Sugano face off in the series finale in Baltimore! These two teams are headed in opposite directions, with the Guardians playing well and the Orioles struggling. Game Two has not happened yet, but the Guardians won the first game. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Guardians-Orioles prediction and pick.
Guardians-Orioles Projected Starters
Tanner Bibee vs. Tomoyuki Sugano
Tanner Bibee (1-1) with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed zero runs on four hits with four walks and four strikeouts through 4.2 innings
Away Splits: (1-1) 6.52 ERA
Tomyuki Sugano (1-1) with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed three runs on eight hits with two walks and zero strikeouts through 4.2 innings
Home Splits: (0-0) 5.79 ERA
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Orioles Odds
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+134)
Moneyline: -112
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-162)
Moneyline: -104
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
How to Watch Guardians vs. Orioles
Time: 6:35 pm ET/3:35 pm PT
Article Continues Below
TV: MASN2/CLEG
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians were one of the best teams in the MLB last season and finished with a 92-69 record. They are 9-7 this season and have won six last seven games. Their bats were underwhelming the previous season and have still struggled this year. They had one of the best pitching staffs in the MLB last year, and they have started this year playing solidly as well. Brayan Rocchio, Carlos Santana, Lane Thomas (out with an injury), Bo Naylor, Kyle Manzardo, Jose Ramirez, and Steven Kwan have been key to their offense this year. Tanner Bibee is the best pitcher on the roster, but Logan Allen and Gavin Williams have also been solid. The Guardians have potential and have looked very good in this series against the Orioles.
The Guardians are starting Bibee on the mound. He has a 1-1 record, a 4.40 ERA, and a 1.40 WHIP. He has allowed seven runs on 13 hits with seven walks and 10 strikeouts through 14.1 innings across three games. He also has a K/BB ratio of 1.4. The Guardians are also 2-1 in his starts. Bibee has been great for the Guardians on the mound, but has started slower this season. The Orioles have a lot of talent on offense, but are struggling in their own right, so this is a giant X-factor in this matchup.
The Guardians have talent behind the plate on offense, even after the offseason. They were 19th in team batting average at .222 and have fallen to a .212 average. Despite the Guardians' overall struggles, Kwan, Manzardo, and Ramirez have been extraordinary on offense. Kwan leads in batting average at .333, in RBI with 11, in OBP at .391, and in total hits with 21. Then, Ramirez leads in home runs with four. This offense has been unimpressive, and this matchup against Sugano will be a struggle for the Guardians in this game.
Why The Orioles Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Orioles had a 91-71 record last season, but it's been a slow start compared to 2025, where they have a 6-10 record and have lost four of their previous five games. Their offense was a top-10 unit last year but has fallen to mediocre this season. The pitching has fallen and struggled, especially compared to the offense. The Orioles have so much young talent behind the plate. Jordan Westburg, Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Jackson Holliday, Tyler O'Neill, Ramon Urias, and Ryan O'Hearn have been red-hot to start the season. The pitching has struggled, but Zach Eflin (who is out with an injury), Tomoyuki Sugano, and Cade Povich have stood out despite their struggles. The Orioles have started the year slowly, but they have talent and can go on a run if things fall into place.
The Orioles are starting Sugano on the mound. He has a 1-1 record, a 3.86 ERA, and a 1.57 WHIP. He has allowed six runs on 17 hits with five walks and five strikeouts through 14 innings across his three starts. His K/BB ratio has also been at one so far this season. The Orioles are also 2-1 in his three starts. Sugano is one of the better pitchers on this staff, and they need all the help they can get from him due to the other struggles this staff is dealing with. This is also a favorable matchup against the Cleveland offense.
The Orioles' offense has fallen off recently after being one of the best in the MLB last year. They are 14th in batting average at .235 after finishing with a .250 last season. Cedric Mullins is the best player despite the offense having a lot of balance overall. Mullins leads in batting average with .300, home runs with four, RBI with 17, OBP at .435, and total hits with 15. This offense has been stuck in a rut and desperately needs a win. Bibee is a great pitcher and won't be an easy matchup, but the balance might still help them win the matchup.
Final Guardians-Orioles Prediction & Pick
The pitching duel between Sugano and Bibee will keep this game close. The Orioles can escape with a win, but they at least cover.
Final Guardians-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-162)
