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The Cleveland Guardians (31-36) visit the San Diego Padres (33-34) for the finale of their three-game series. First pitch commences Thursday at 8:40 p.m. ET. San Diego secured a series win thanks to their 5-0 win last night as they go for a series sweep tonight. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Guardians-Padres prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Guardians-Padres MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Padres Odds
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-184)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+152)
Over: 8.5 (-118)
Under: 8.5 (-104)
How To Watch Guardians vs. Padres
TV: Bally Sports
Stream: MLB.tv
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET/ 5:40 p.m. PT
*See how to watch Guardians-Padres LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 6-4 (Second in the AL Central)
Run Line Record: 32-35 (48%)
Over Record: 25-40-2 (39%)
Cleveland looked to be turning things around prior to this series. They opened the month by splitting a four-game set with the Twins before taking two of three against the Red Sox and Astros. Their offense has returned to its earlier season form in San Diego, however, with just three runs in the first two games. Although Logan Allen has pitched well for them, their pitching hasn't been the issue in this series. The Guardians must find a way to generate offense if they want to cover as road underdogs – something they've done at a high rate (67%) this year.
Rookie Logan Allen (3-2) makes his 10th start of the season for the Guardians tonight. The 24-year-old southpaw has been a strong addition to Cleveland's rotation thanks to his 3.31 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Allen displays incredible command for his age – ranking in the 73rd percentile with a 6.7% walk rate. While his expected stats suggest some regression could come in the future, Allen has shown moments of dominance with three starts allowing one run or fewer. He was roughed up by the Astros in his most recent start, however, allowing five runs on nine hits across 6.0 innings. Things don't get much easier tonight against a Padres lineup that is not only heating up but also performing much better against lefties compared to righties.
While Jose Ramirez is by far Cleveland's best hitter, he's struggled tremendously against lefties with a poor .173 average. Thankfully, both Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez have been stellar against southpaws. Kwan boasts a .306 average while Gimenez has an eye-popping .890 OPS. That said, both contact hitters have struggled in recent games. That's where Josh Naylor could come into play. The first baseman struggled through the first month of the season but has been red-hot in June with a .419 average and 22 total bases.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 7-3 (Fourth in the NL West)
Run Line Record: 34-33 (51%)
Over Record: 22-43-2 (34%)
Although the Padres haven't put it all together yet, they're starting to look like the team many expected them to be coming into the season. They slumped in May via a 10-16 record but have begun to heat up with eight wins in their first 12 June games. They haven't been great at covering as a home favorite (43%) but have done so in each of the first two games of this series. Consequently, the Padres look like a strong favorite tonight provided their offense can continue its recent pace.
Lefty Ryan Weathers (1-4) makes his ninth start of the season for the Padres tonight. The 23-year-old has been up and down after missing almost the entirety of the 2022 season. His 4.93 ERA and 1.49 WHIP are nothing special, but a 4.35 xERA suggests he's gotten a bit unlucky. Weathers won't strike many batters out and he struggles with walks, however, he does an excellent job limiting hard contact – sitting in the 90th percentile in hard hit rate allowed. With Weathers also ranking in the 79th percentile in barrel rate, he could be in line for a strong start tonight against Cleveland's 27th-ranked offense. Additionally, Weathers is coming off a solid outing at Coors Field in which he allowed just a single run in three innings.
The biggest part of San Diego's turnaround has been its offense. That starts with Fernando Tatis who is on an absolute heater right now. Since June 1st, Tatis owns a .417 average, has hit five home runs, and collected 43 total bases. He's hit .319 against lefties for his career and is slugging .745 against them this season. Tatis' ascension has largely downplayed the slow return of Manny Machado. The third baseman hit just .233 in April and .217 in May but is up to .311 this month.
Final Guardians-Padres Prediction & Pick
If the first two games were any indication, the Padres just have too much offense for the Guardians. Unless Cleveland can keep this under five runs, they don't have much of, if any, shot of covering tonight.
Final Guardians-Padres Prediction & Pick: San Diego Padres -1.5 (+152)
