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In his return from a two-year absence, Gunnar Nelson (19-5-1) will again fight in London, this time against fan favorite Kevin Holland (26-13, 1 NC). It is time to continue our UFC London odds series with a Gunnar Nelson-Kevin Holland prediction and pick.
Nelson, 36, will be the crowd favorite as a native of Iceland. Once a promising young prospect, Nelson has since become a scarcely used veteran, competing for just the third time since 2020. He enters this matchup on a two-fight win streak — both also coming in March on previous UFC London cards — the most recent installment being a first-round submission of Bryan Barberena.
Holland, 32, returns to welterweight after an unsuccessful 1-2 stint back up at middleweight. While known for his up-and-down career, he is amid arguably the toughest stretch of his career, going just 1-4 since September 2023. Holland is coming off a first-round submission loss to Reinier de Ridder at UFC 311.
Here are the UFC London Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC London Odds: Gunnar Nelson-Kevin Holland Odds
Gunnar Nelson: -130
Kevin Holland: +110
Over 2.5 rounds: +130
Under 2.5 rounds: -166
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Why Gunnar Nelson Will Win
The path to victory for Nelson is as clear as day — wrestle. Holland, while not the worst wrestler, tends to lose to superior grapplers, whilst Nelson is one of the most accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu practicioners in the division. The two are coming off opposite ends of first-round submission, with Nelson tapping out Barberena two years ago and Holland recently submitting to de Ridder.
For Nelson, a former multi-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion, getting Holland to the mat will be the tricky part. He will be the smaller man fighting at a four-inch height and nine-inch reach disadvantage. Closing the distance will be tough, but Nelson's karate point-fighting striking base could pose issues for Holland, who is 0-2 against similar approaches.
Granted, those losses came against Stephen Thompson and Michael ‘Venom' Page, two of the best strikers in divisional history, but he was nowhere close to solving either puzzle. With just two months since his last fight, Holland has not had enough time to adequately prepare.
Why Kevin Holland Will Win
Holland's lack of wrestling prowess are so widely known at this point that it is puzzling why the UFC continues to match him up with such fighters. However, most of his issues against grapplers have been at middleweight, a weight class he is clearly too small to compete in. Against opponents his size, his grappling skills are better than advertised. Holland is 2-0 against grappling-based fighters at welterweight in the UFC, submitting both Michael Chiesa and Tim Means with a D'Arce choke.
From a pure grappling perspective, Nelson is much better than both Chiesa and Means. However, now 36, Nelson's athleticism and speed have visibly declined. He still boasts a 59 percent takedown accuracy but has not been as creative setting them up late in his career. Nelson managed to take down Barberena and Takashi Sato by blitzing into a clinch and muscling them down, something he will not find as easy against Holland.
While Holland's recent record is undesirable, Nelson's is a bit of fool's gold. He does not have a single win over a fighter currently on the UFC roster and has been spoon-fed his two recent victories. Even if ring rust is not an issue for Nelson, his strength-based approach is not one that matches up well against Holland.
Final Gunnar Nelson-Kevin Holland Prediction & Pick
Coming off consecutive losses to world-class grapplers, Holland now faces arguably the best one of his career in Nelson. The recent trends of both fighters would suggest value on Nelson, but Holland is a far better grappler at welterweight than he is at middleweight. The last time he faced a similar opponent, Holland shut down Chiesa with a first-round D'Arce choke. The odds of Holland submitting Nelson are immensely thin, but his defensive mechanics and length against opponents his own size are significantly more effective.
If Nelson can get this fight down, he can make anything happen. Yet, as he struggles with injuries and inactivity late in his career, his movement and burst have dramatically dropped off. Taking down Barberena and Sato is a much easier task than Holland, who has defended 69 percent of shots against him at welterweight.
Whenever the fight is on the feet, it will entirely be in Holland's world. Holland, already the quicker and more powerful striker, will have a massive nine-inch reach advantage to work with. Nelson's striking relies on a lot of movement, both with his feet and head, which has not gone in his favor as time passes. Since returning from a three-year-long layoff in 2022, Nelson has landed just 11 total strikes at distance in his last two fights. The record might not show it, but Holland should be favored in this matchup.
Final Gunnar Nelson-Kevin Holland Prediction & Pick: Kevin Holland (+110)
