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The NBA season comes to an end, but the 2025 NBA Playoffs are just starting, and we have a tilt between the Miami Heat and the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 of the playoffs on Sunday. It's time to continue our NBA Playoffs odds series with a Heat-Cavaliers prediction and pick.
The Cleveland Cavaliers, fresh off a franchise-best 64-win season, host the Miami Heat in Game 1 of their first-round playoff series Sunday at Rocket Arena (7 p.m. ET, TNT). Cleveland boasts the NBA’s second-best home record (34-7), fueled by a raucous crowd and a roster that delivered three of the league’s longest win streaks this year. Miami, entering as the eighth seed after surviving the play-in, will lean on playoff-tested veterans to challenge the Cavs’ depth and momentum. Expect a physical, high-energy opener as the Cavs look to defend home court and set the tone for the series.
Here are the Heat-Cavaliers NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Heat-Cavaliers Game 1 Odds
Miami Heat: +12.5 (-112)
Moneyline: +500
Cleveland Cavaliers: -12.5 (-108)
Moneyline: -700
Over: 214.5 (-112)
Under: 214.5 (-108)
How To Watch Heat vs. Cavaliers NBA Playoffs 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT
TV: TNT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Heat Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Miami Heat enter Sunday’s Game 1 against the Cleveland Cavaliers as significant underdogs, but there are compelling reasons to believe they can cover the +12.5 spread, or even pull off a surprise win. Miami’s playoff pedigree is undeniable; this is a team that thrives in high-pressure situations, having just won two road games in the Play-In Tournament to secure their spot. Their current group is statistically stronger than the 2023 squad that made a run from the Play-In to the NBA Finals, and they’ve shown resilience and grit that make them a dangerous matchup, especially for a Cavaliers team that may not have wanted to see them in the first round.
Defensively, the Heat remain elite, ranking as a top-10 unit for the sixth consecutive season and allowing just 101 points per 100 possessions in their Play-In wins. Offensively, Tyler Herro is in top form, and Miami’s ability to shoot from deep, which is crucial for underdogs, has already been a playoff equalizer for them in the past. The Cavaliers, despite their historic regular season, have shown vulnerability in the playoffs before, particularly with rebounding and shooting under postseason pressure. With Miami’s zone defense likely to disrupt Cleveland’s rhythm and the Heat’s proven ability to keep games close on the road, they’ve won six of their last seven away from home, the double-digit spread looks generous. Expect Miami’s playoff experience, defensive schemes, and hot shooting to keep this opener competitive and well within the number.
Why the Cavaliers Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Cleveland Cavaliers are poised to win and cover the spread against the Miami Heat in Sunday’s Game 1, thanks to a combination of elite offensive firepower, depth, and home-court advantage. Cleveland finished the regular season with a 64-18 record, the second best in franchise history, and won two of three matchups against Miami this year. The Cavs boast the second-most efficient offense in NBA history, scoring 121.0 points per 100 possessions, and feature a deep roster with eight players shooting at least 36% from three on high volume. Their ability to score both in the paint (60.7% FG) and from beyond the arc (38.3% 3PT) makes them difficult to defend, especially for a Heat team that struggled to close out games and finished the regular season with a negative point differential.
Beyond their starters, Cleveland’s bench has been a difference-maker all season. Head coach Kenny Atkinson’s 12-man rotation kept the roster fresh and healthy, with key reserves like Ty Jerome and De’Andre Hunter providing efficient scoring and versatile defense. The Cavs’ bench ranked eighth in points per game, and their depth allows them to maintain pressure for 48 minutes, especially against a Heat squad coming off two grueling Play-In road wins and limited rest. With home-court advantage, superior shooting, and a rested, deep lineup, expect the Cavaliers to dictate the pace, exploit Miami’s secondary scoring limitations, and pull away to both win and cover in Game 1.
Final Heat-Cavaliers Prediction & Pick
The Cleveland Cavaliers are set to open their playoff run with a statement, and the numbers point to them winning and covering the spread against the Miami Heat in Game 1. Cleveland, boasting the second-most efficient offense in NBA history and a dominant 34-7 home record, enters well-rested and prepared. While the Heat have shown resilience, winning six of their last seven road games, their defense has struggled against elite offenses, ranking just 19th in such matchups. Expect the Cavs’ depth and firepower to overwhelm Miami, resulting in a convincing Cleveland win; however, the Miami Heat keep this competitive to cover the spread in Game 1.
Final Heat-Cavaliers Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat +12.5 (-112), Over 214.5 (-112)
