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It is a Big 12 conference battle as Houston faces Kansas State. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Houston-Kansas State prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Houston enters the game with a 3-4 record on the year, and just one win in conference play. The one win is over West Virginia. West Virginia scored with 12 seconds left in the game to take a 39-35 lead, but Houston struck back. They scored on two plays, covering 57 yards in seven seconds to win the game. Still, last time out thye faced Texas. Texas took a 21-0 lead, but Houston scored 14 points to keep it close. Going into the fourth quarter, Houston was down just three and scored to tie it up in the fourth quarter. Still, Texas would score and win 31-24.
Meanwhile, Kansas State is 5-1 on the year. They are sitting at 3-1 in conference play, with the only loss being to Oklahoma State. Kansas State trailed much of the game, falling 10-0 in the first quarter. They would be down 20-7 at the half and would end up losing 29-21. Last week, they were dominant though. Kansas State faced TCU and scored 21 points in the first half while giving up just three. They led 27-3 at the half and would go on to win 41-3 over TCU.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Houston-Kansas State Odds
Houston: +17.5 (-110)
Kansas State: -17.5 (-110)
Over: 58.5 (-115)
Under: 58.5 (-105)
How to Watch Houston vs. Kansas State Week 9
Time: noon ET/ 9:00 AM PT
TV: ESPN2
Stream: FuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Houston Will Cover The Spread
Donovan Smith leads the offensive unit for Houston. This year he has completed 177 of 277 passes for 1,978 yards and 16 touchdowns. He has been great as of late, throwing three or more touchdowns in each of the last three games, while throwing 16 big-time throws according to PFF. Smith did have an interception last time out, his fourth of the year. He was also sacked three times last game, something Houston will need to improve on in this game.
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Meanwhile, Smith has been solid on the ground year as well. Smith has run for 291 yards on the ground, with four touchdowns. The Houston ground game is not great though. Smith is the leading rusher on the team, with Parker Jenkins behind him. Jenkins has run for just 264 yards this year, but has scored twice and not fumbled. Stacy Sneed joins him in the backfield, and gas run for 211 yards and one score.
While Houston has a 108th-ranked running attack, they are in the top 25 in passing. A big part of that has been Samuel Brown. Brown has brought in 40 of 59 targets on the year for 614 yards and two scores. He also has 300 yards after the catch this season. Further, Joseph Manjack and Matthew Golden have been key contributors. Manjack has 435 yards this year, with four scores. Meanwhile, Golden has 398 yards and has scored six times on the year.
On defense, Houston has a star running the passer. Nelson Caesar is the leader in the pass rush. On the season he has 21 quarterback pressures with six sacks. Meanwhile, Jamaree Caldwell has three sacks on the year with six quarterback pressures. In the run game, Chidozie Nwankwo has been good. He is second on the team in stops for offensive failures in the run game but has missed two games.
Meanwhile, with 13 tackles, he has an average depth of tackle of just .4 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. The pass coverage also has two ball hawks. Isaiah Hamilton and Malik Fleming both have three interceptions this year for Houston.
Why Kansas State Will Cover The Spread
It is Will Howard who leads this Kansas State offense. He has completed just 121 of 197 passes this year for 1,451 yards. He does have 11 touchdowns this year, but he has also thrown seven interceptions this year, with seven other turnover-worthy passes. Howard has been better as of late. He has not thrown an interception or turnover-worthy pass in the last two games, while also throwing for three scores.
Howard has also been solid on the ground this year. He has 325 yards on the ground this year, and he has scored six times this year. Last week, Howard fumbled for the first time this year. On the ground, DJ Giddens has been great. He has rushed for 626 yards this year and five scores. He has also been great after contact as well, with 329 yards this year. Meanwhile, Treshaun Ward has run for 426 yards on the ground this year, with three scores.
In the receiving game, there has not been a standout. Running back DJ Giddens has been solid, with 218 yards this year, and 210 of those yards coming after the catch. Phillip Brooks leads the team in receiving yards this year with 354 yards on the season. He has also scored twice. Ben Sinnott, the tight end, has 351 yards this year and also three touchdowns.
On pass rush, Kansas State has 23 sacks this year, with 123 pressures. Khalid Duke has five of those sacks with 19 pressures this year. Meanwhile, Nate Matlack and Austin Moore each have three sacks. On the run defensive, Desmond Purnell has been solid. He has 15 stops for offensive failures with an average depth of tackle of 1.5 yards downfield. He has also forced a fumble. Kansas State has also been solid in coverage this year. they have allowed just seven touchdowns, while also picking off six passes.
Final Houston-Kansas State Prediction & Pick
Kansas State will try to run the ball and run it a lot. They should find success there, control the ground game, and control the clock. Still, Houston can hit big plays, and score in a hurry. They will make some big plays in this game and score quickly on some drives. With that, Kansas State is not going to be able to score enough to cover in this one. Expect Donovan Smith to throw a few touchdowns in this game, and while DJ Giddens scores as well, Houston is going to cover, but it will be tight.
Final Houston-Kansas State Prediction & Pick: Houston +17.5 (-110)
