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Ranked 20th in the nation, Mark Pope and the BYU Cougars take on T.J. Oztelberger’s 23rd-ranked Iowa State Cyclones in a Big 12 matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Iowa State-BYU prediction and pick.
T.J. Otzelberger brings his Cyclones to the Marriott Center looking to steal one on the road. Led by Tamin Lipsey and Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State knocked off Houston as the last undefeated team in the nation. The Otzelberger defense anchored by Robert Jones has been as stout as it gets.
Surprisingly, Mark Pope has the Cougars ranked 20th in the AP poll and 11th in KenPom. Even though BYU has lost 2 out of its last 3, they led at halftime in both losses. A veteran squad, Pope only plays two underclassmen in the rotation. Led by three-point snipers Jaxson Robinson and Trevin Knell, BYU has the shooting to beat anyone.
The Cougars’ shooting against the Cyclones’ defense–something has to give.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Iowa State-BYU Odds
Iowa State: +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +162
BYU: -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -196
Over: 141.5 (-115)
Under: 141.5 (-105)
How to Watch Iowa State vs. BYU
Time: 9:00 pm ET/ 6:00 pm PT
TV: ESP+
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Iowa State Will Cover The Spread
When you are defending the way Iowa State is, you always have a shot. Sophomore Tamin Lipsey has cemented himself as one of the best guard defenders in the nation. Ranking third nationally with a steal rate of 6.3%, you can almost guarantee a multiple steal night. If Iowa State can get out to a lead, it will be tough sledding trying to put together multiple baskets on this team.
Secondly, the Cyclones rank top 30 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. Playing against a BYU team that shoots the three-ball at a high clip, defensive rebounding is massive. In Big 12 play, BYU’s offensive rebounding percentage is just 21.9% compared to a full-season percentage of 34.9%.
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If the shots are not falling from outside for the Cougars, Iowa State should be in a good position to snag that defensive rebound.
Coaches often say the players usually hit a tough stretch mentally right around the fifteen game mark. You just battled in non-conference play, finished a semester of school, holidays, whatever it may be this is a tough stretch for kids. To be playing with confidence goes a long way.
After taking a loss on the road at Oklahoma, bouncing back against Houston and Oklahoma State was huge. The Cyclones are walking into the Marriott Center with full confidence.
Why BYU Will Cover The Spread
Initially, when looking at what the BYU defense can do to slow down Iowa State there is a lot to like. Through three Big 12 games, Iowa State is shooting 19.6% from long range. Yes, you read that right. The Cyclones have made only three threes in each of their Big 12 games.
In turn, Iowa State has gotten an insane 66.7% of their points from two-point range. So, we know in a general sense of where Iowa State does its damage.
Thankfully, BYU has one of the better interior defenses in the conference. The Cougars have held all three of their Big 12 opponents under 44% from two-point range. Between Aly Khalifa, Noah Waterman, and Atiki Ally Atiki BYU has two interior defenders 6-10 or taller on the court for most of the game.
If Iowa State decides to go small, BYU can counter with 6-6 240lb Fousseyni Traore. This Cougar defense is better than it gets credit for.
Both teams play at an identical pace with an adjusted tempo of 69.4 which falls about the middle of the pack nationally. With tempo not playing a factor here, effective field goal percentages should play a role. Looking at the full-season numbers, BYU is shooting about 3% better than Iowa State. Narrowing that to just conference play, BYU is shooting 4% better. The Cougars' ability to create open looks in the half-court should favor them, especially at home.
Final Iowa State-BYU Prediction & Pick
When both teams play at the same tempo, what you see is what you get. Who can execute better in the half-court and take care of the basketball?
This is a BYU team that led at halftime against Cincinnati and Baylor before dropping those. Then bouncing back by clawing through a rock fight at UCF, there may not be a better spot for a home team. In five games away from home, Iowa State is 2-5. The first win was a 68-64 win over VCU when the Cyclones trailed by 10 points with 6:02 left in the game. The other win is at DePaul.
Take the better shooting team at home against an Iowa State team that has yet to show they can play well on the road.
Final Iowa State-BYU Prediction & Pick: BYU -4.5 (-110)
