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The UFC Louisville Main Card is live on ESPN+ and we're set for another betting prediction and pick for all the action. The next bout takes place in the Middleweight (185) Division and features Las Vegas' Julian Marquez taking on Texas' own Zachary Reese. Check out our UFC odds series for our Marquez-Reese prediction and pick.
Julian Marquez (9-4) has gone 3-3 inside of the UFC since 2017. He's been relatively inactive since 2021, losing both of his fights against Gregory Rodrigues and Marc-Andre Barriault during that span. He'll be looking to get back on the winning track as he welcomes a fresh face to the division. Marquez stands 6'2″ with a 72-inch reach.
Zachary Reese (6-1) will make his second walk to the UFC octagon following a loss in his debut against Cody Brundage. He came into that fight as the betting favorite and got a tough wake-up call to the organization. He comes in as the underdog this time around still searching for his first official win. Reese stands 6'4″ with a 77-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Louisville Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Louisville Odds: Julian Marquez-Zachary Reese Odds
Julian Marquez: -135
Zachary Reese: +115
Over 1.5 rounds: +125
Under 1.5 rounds: -155
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Why Julian Marquez Will Win
Julian Marquez showed the best version of himself during his back-to-back wins over Maki Pitolo and Sam Alvery back in 2021. Since then, however, we haven't heard much about Marquez or seen the knockouts that made him popular in the first place. He hasn't been able to find a consistent rhythm with his opponents constantly pulling out of fights and he ran into brick walls with how determined his last two opponent were. As the betting favorite here, it's clear Marquez is still a top-level fighter and he'll need to fight like his old self to get back in the win column here.
Julian Marquez is very sound defensively with his boxing and his hands can shut the lights out for most opponents, but we've seen him take some damage on his chin over the last few fights. He's an underrated wrestler and has success doing so throughout the mid-rounds of the fight, so expect him to turn towards his strong suits during this bout. He has a lot to prove and the most dangerous version of Julian Marquez could be a determined one.
Why Zachary Reese Will Win
Zachary Reese made his debut with a lot of steam and hype behind him given the betting odds for his first-ever UFC fight. It didn't help that his opponent Cody Brundage also had his back against the wall and was fighting with much more experience than Reese up to that point. While Reese was trying to sink-in an armbar attempt, he was slammed on his head and ultimately knocked out. It'll be interesting to see how he learned from that experience as he faces another powerful wrestler like Marquez.
Zachary Reese will have the striking advantage during this fight and he'll be much more active with his kicking game. However, Marquez may have the wrestling edge over him and we could see a strength discrepancy if Marquez gets a hold of him. Look for Reese to keep his distance on the feet as he utilizes elbows and knees from in-close. He has a much better chance of stopping this on the feet, so he'll want to avoid any unnecessary submission attempts that could put him in a compromising spot.
Final Julian Marquez-Zachary Reese Prediction & Pick
Both fighters are coming into this bout off a loss and they'll both be determined to get this win back on their record. Julian Marquez comes in as the favorite behind his power and wrestling abilities. He'll be working towards a single leg takedown all fight as he tries to soften Zachary Reese with the ground-and-pound. Reese's last fight ended unfortunately with a slam-knockout, but his physical tools and crisp striking could be more effective this time around.
With the total set where it is, it seems as though oddsmakers are expecting this fight to end within the first round. However, with both men suffering a loss in their last fight, they may approach this bout more defensively and try to feel their opponent out. Both men are also very solid on the ground and will be able to fend off the takedowns.
For our prediction, we'll have to side with the experience of Julian Marquez and being in this spot before. Zachary Reese's last knockout has to still be fresh in his head and he may be a little shy letting his hands go in this one. If Julian Marquez finds a slight opening, expect him to let loose and try to end this fight. Let's roll with the total to go over as well.
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Final Julian Marquez-Zachary Reese Prediction & Pick: Julian Marquez (-135); OVER 1.5 Rounds (+125)
