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UFC 313: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev continues on the main card with the co-main event fight between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev in the lightweight division. Gaethje comes into this fight after suffering one of the most brutal knockout losses in UFC history meanwhile, Fiziev is making his first appearance since suffering a leg injury back in September 2023. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Gaethje-Fiziev prediction and pick.
Justin Gaethje (25-5) is coming off one of the most iconic knockouts in UFC history against Max Holloway at UFC 300. Originally slated to face off against Dan Hooker now Gaethje gets his crack at getting back into the win column with a short-notice rematch with dangerous striker Rafael Fiziev.
Rafael Fiziev (12-3) stayed ready for the right moment and that opportunity presented itself once Hooker needed to withdraw due to injury. This fight now puts Fiziev in a prime position to not only get back on track but secure the biggest win of his career which could catapult him into the title talks against Justin Gaethje this weekend at UFC 313.
Here are the UFC 313 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 313 Odds: Justin Gaethje-Rafael Fiziev Odds
Justin Gaethje: +136
Rafael Fiziev: -162
Over 2.5 rounds: -130
Under 2.5 rounds: +100
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Why Justin Gaethje Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Max Holloway – KO/TKO R5
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 21 (19 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Justin Gaethje is primed to secure another victory over Rafael Fiziev in their highly anticipated rematch at UFC 313. Known as “The Highlight,” Gaethje is one of the most dangerous and entertaining fighters in MMA, boasting an 84% finish rate with 19 knockouts. His ability to blend chaos with calculated striking was on full display in their first encounter, where he edged out Fiziev via majority decision. Gaethje’s leg kicks, relentless pressure, and durability are key weapons that can disrupt Fiziev’s rhythm and force him into uncomfortable exchanges.
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Fiziev, stepping in on short notice after recovering from a knee injury, faces an uphill battle against a fighter as seasoned as Gaethje. While Fiziev is a technical striker, Gaethje’s ability to absorb damage and return fire with ferocity could overwhelm him, especially in the later rounds. Additionally, Gaethje’s recent knockout win over Dustin Poirier to claim the BMF title showcased his evolution as a fighter, particularly his improved fight IQ and ability to land devastating finishes. With Fiziev potentially lacking optimal preparation time, Gaethje’s experience and relentless pace should carry him to another hard-fought victory, solidifying his position as one of the lightweight division’s elite contenders.
Why Rafael Fiziev Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Mateusz Gamrot – KO/TKO R2
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 9 (8 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Rafael Fiziev has a strong chance to defeat Justin Gaethje in their highly anticipated rematch at UFC 313. Known for his elite Muay Thai, Fiziev’s technical striking and speed give him a clear edge in exchanges. Despite losing their first fight via majority decision, Fiziev landed more significant strikes (103 to Gaethje's 97) and showcased his ability to adapt against Gaethje’s relentless pressure. With six first-round finishes and eight career knockouts, Fiziev has the power to hurt even the most durable opponents, and his precision could exploit defensive lapses in Gaethje’s wild exchanges.
Additionally, Fiziev has likely made adjustments since their first meeting, focusing on countering Gaethje’s calf kicks and chaotic style. While Gaethje thrives in brawls, Fiziev’s ability to remain composed under fire and pick his shots could turn the tide in this rematch. Despite stepping in on short notice, Fiziev’s time at Tiger Muay Thai ensures he is always in top shape. If he can maintain distance, avoid prolonged firefights, and capitalize on Gaethje’s defensive gaps, Fiziev has the tools to secure a decisive victory. With improved strategy and sharp execution, expect Fiziev to avenge his previous loss and re-establish himself as a top lightweight contender.
Final Justin Gaethje-Rafael Fiziev Prediction & Pick
The rematch between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev at UFC 313 promises another thrilling lightweight clash. Gaethje, a former interim champion, brings relentless pressure, heavy hands, and devastating leg kicks that troubled Fiziev in their first fight. His ability to thrive in chaos and push a torrid pace makes him a constant danger, especially against an opponent stepping in on short notice. Coming off a recent training camp for a five-round fight, Gaethje’s conditioning and preparation give him an edge in this three-round bout.
However, Fiziev’s technical striking and speed remain key factors. Despite losing their first encounter by majority decision, he landed more significant strikes and showed flashes of brilliance with his Muay Thai skills. If Fiziev can avoid Gaethje’s calf kicks and maintain distance, his precision could turn the tide. That said, this fight should play out relatively similar to the first but Fiziev will have the bigger moments and this time rightfully getting his hand raised in the end.
Final Justin Gaethje-Rafael Fiziev Prediction & Pick: Rafael Fiziev (-162), Over 2.5 Rounds (-130)
