UFC Shanghai: Nassourdine Imavov versus Caio Borralho continues on the prelims fight between Kaue Fernandes and Trey Waters in the welterweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Fernandes-Hardwick prediction and pick.
Kaue Fernandes (10-2) enters UFC Paris after a gritty unanimous decision win against Guram Kutateladze in March, showcasing powerful leg kicks and composed striking. Previously, Fernandes dropped a razor-thin split decision to Marc Diakiese in his UFC debut, marking his most recent loss and only falling on the scorecards.
Harry Hardwick (13-3-1) makes his UFC debut at Paris after an impressive Cage Warriors run. He outpointed Javier Garcia for a technical decision and previously stopped Keweny Lopes by fourth-round TKO. Hardwick hasn’t lost since a unanimous decision defeat to Richie Smullen in 2020, entering with strong momentum.
Here are the UFC Paris Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Paris Odds: Kaue Fernandes-Harry Hardwick odds
Kaue Fernandes: -170
Harry Hardwick: +142
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Why Kaue Fernandes will win
- Last Fight: (W) Guram Kutateladze – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 (5 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Kaue Fernandes has key advantages over Harry Hardwick heading into UFC Paris, starting with cage time and proven experience against elite competition. Fernandes owns a UFC win over Guram Kutateladze, showcasing disciplined striking, strong clinch work, and the composure necessary to navigate high-pressure moments against capable opponents.
His ability to maintain distance, land damaging leg kicks, and control the tempo could frustrate Hardwick, who is moving up in weight for his short-notice promotional debut. With solid takedown defense and technical footwork, Fernandes can neutralize Hardwick's forward pressure and capitalize on any defensive lapses—especially as Hardwick manages the jump to a bigger, more athletic lightweight division.
Further, Fernandes' edge in UFC-level rounds and physicality should serve him well if the fight goes into deep waters. Hardwick’s championship pedigree is undeniable, but stepping up on limited prep time may leave him susceptible to Fernandes’ sharper timing and seasoned fight IQ, making the Brazilian a strong pick to spoil Hardwick’s debut and establish himself as a threat in the lightweight ranks.
Why Harry Hardwick will win
- Last Fight: (W) Javier Garcia – DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 7 (3 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Harry Hardwick’s path to victory at UFC Paris starts with relentless pressure and elite championship experience from his Cage Warriors run. His nine-fight unbeaten streak and ability to push a high pace into the championship rounds provide a blueprint to disrupt Fernandes’ rhythm and wear him down as the fight progresses.
Hardwick’s striking arsenal, which includes sharp boxing combinations and a deceptively strong clinch game, gives him the ability to outwork Fernandes in the pocket and along the fence. He’s shown finishing ability—scoring TKOs and technical decisions against tough opposition—and could exploit Fernandes if the Brazilian retreats or slows in later rounds.
Stepping up on short notice, Hardwick actually benefits from fighting without the pressure of expectation, bringing a fearless, opportunistic style into the Octagon. He’s also known for cleaning up defensive lapses mid-fight and turning adversity into momentum—qualities essential for a UFC debut against an opponent with more top-level rounds.
If he dictates pace and volume, Hardwick’s championship mentality and grit could earn him a statement win, shaking up the lightweight division with a breakthrough performance in Paris.
Final Kaue Fernandes-Harry Hardwick prediction & pick
Kaue Fernandes vs. Harry Hardwick at UFC Paris shapes up as a battle of composure and grit, but the edge goes to Fernandes thanks to his UFC-tested experience and ability to control a technical fight. Fernandes’ recent win over Guram Kutateladze demonstrated his poise against high-level competition, as well as his ability to manage range with crisp striking and punishing leg kicks.
Hardwick enters as a surging Cage Warriors champion on a strong winning streak, but he is stepping up to lightweight on short notice and facing a more athletic, physically imposing contender. Fernandes has also shown strong takedown defense and composure under fire, which will be crucial against Hardwick’s forward pressure and willingness to turn the fight into a brawl.
Expect Fernandes to use his jab, distance management, and variety of kicks to stifle Hardwick’s advances and to rack up points early. If Hardwick forces a high-tempo, scrappy fight, Fernandes’ experience at UFC pace and his ability to adjust mid-fight should give him the edge in the clinch and in the later rounds.
Look for Fernandes to pull away down the stretch, landing clean shots and capitalizing on defensive lapses, earning a decision victory in a competitive debut for Hardwick.
Final Kaue Fernandes-Harry Hardwick Prediction & Pick: Kaue Fernandes (-170)
