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The Tampa Bay Lightning will attempt to even things up as they face the Florida Panthers in Game 4 of the Best-of-7 First-Round Series on Monday at Amerant Bank Arena. The Battle of Florida intensifies as we continue our Stanley Cup Playoffs odds series with a Lightning-Panthers Game 4 prediction and pick.
The Lightning defeated the Panthers 5-1 on Saturday in Sunrise, covering the spread and winning the game by a lot. After allowing a goal by Matthew Tkachuk, the Bolts tied it with a tally by Jake Guentzel. Then, Nick Paul got the go-ahead goal in the second period and the Bolts never looked back.
Here are the Lightning-Panthers Game 4 Stanley Cup Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Stanley Cup Playoffs Odds: Lightning-Panthers Game 4 Odds
Tampa Bay Lightning: +1.5 (-245)
Moneyline: +112
Florida Panthers: -1.5 (+194)
Moneyline: -134
Over: 5.5 (-112)
Under: 5.5 (-108)
How To Watch Lightning vs. Panthers Stanley Cup Playoffs
Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT
TV: ESPN, Sportsnet, TVAS and FanDuel Sports Sun
*Watch NHL games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Lightning Will Cover the Spread/Win
After being shut out in Game 2, the Lightning responded soundly in Game 2. Initially, it looked bad as they could not get past the stingy Florida defense. However, the floodgates cracked in the second period and fully opened in the third when the Lightning tallied three goals.
It was a big win for a team that was shorthanded, as Brandon Hagel was suspended for Game 3 after his hit on Aleksander Barkov in Game 2. Yet, the Bolts responded without issues. Nikita Kucherov contributed three assists. One of those assists was to Jake Guentzel, who finished with a goal and two assists. Meanwhile, Ryan McDonagh had two helpers, while Gage Gonclaves added two. Luke Glendening and Anthony Cirelli each had a goal, showcasing what the bottom two lines could do.
The Lightning had just 22 shots on goal, but made the most of them. Additionally, they won 57 percent of their faceoffs, denying the Panthers significant puck possession time. The Bolts also scored five goals on 5 v 5, but were 0 for 5 on the power play.
Andrei Vasilevskiy was great, making 33 saves and allowing just one goal. Additionally, his defense prevented all four penalties while registering 34 hits and blocking 23 shots.
The Lightning will cover the spread if Kucherov can continue to cook and set his teammates up for some success. Then, the defense must continue to play the edges, and Vasilevskiy must stay focused.
Why the Panthers Will Cover the Spread/Win
Aaron Ekblad returned from a 20-game suspension for Game 3. Unfortunately, his return was not enough to deter a defense that struggled mightily, while the offense did not do much.
Tkachuk scored, and it seemed like things would go well. Then, the Panthers fell flat and just played lifeless hockey for the rest of the game. Sam Reinhart was among the many who struggled to contribute on offense. Overall, the Cats fired 34 shots at the net. But their poor faceoff percentage (43) contributed to a lack of good chances and a lot of chasing. The Panthers also went 0 for 4 on the power play.
Sergei Bobrovsky was bad, making just 17 saves and allowing four goals. Yet, the defense did not allow any of those goals on the power play, going 5 for 5. The defense leveled 43 hits and blocked 17 shots. Unfortunately, it was not enough.
The Panthers will cover the spread if Tkachuk can score again and his teammates can continue the momentum to build an insurmountable lead. Then, the defense must play better, and prevent the Bolts from getting golden chances.
Final Lightning-Panthers Game 4 Prediction & Pick
The last time a team trailed 2-1 going into Game 4 on the road happened in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, when the Edmonton Oilers rallied from a 3-0 deficit in Game 4 to shock the Los Angeles Kings 5-4 in overtime at Crypto. The Lightning were last in this situation in the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs, when they went into Game 4 at Joe Louis Arena and shocked the Detroit Red Wings to even their Best-of-7 First Round Series. This is the first time the Panthers have led a Best-of-7 Series 2-1 with Game 4 at home.
I had the Bolts covering the spread in Game 3, and they succeeded. Now, I think they might do more than that. They have a renewed confidence, and all they needed to do was test Bobrovsky. Remember, Bobrovsky only needed 19 saves in Game 2 to shut them out, and made 20 saves while allowing two goals in Game 1. He is not a great goalie at this point in his career, and the Lightning can capitalize on that by getting past this defense. I can see them doing it again, possibly evening the series up.
Final Lightning-Panthers Game 4 Prediction & Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning: +1.5 (-245)
