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Manchester City will host Liverpool in an exciting battle on Sunday at Etihad Stadium. It is a classic rivalry as we share our English Premier League odds series with a Manchester City-Liverpool prediction and pick.
This is a storied rivalry, with both squads being near the top of the Premier League table for the majority of the time. So far, through 227 matches, Liverpool has won 109 games, Manchester City has won 60, and the other 58 have resulted in a draw. The last match saw Liverpool shut out Manchester City 2-0. Ultimately, the two matches before that resulted in a 1-1 draw, including a draw at Etihad Stadium in November 2023. Over the past five showdowns at Etihad, Manchester City has won twice, Liverpool has won once, and the other two have resulted in a draw.
Here are the Premier League odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Premier League Odds: Manchester City-Liverpool Odds
Manchester City: +180
Liverpool: +130
Draw: +280
Over 2.5 goals: -278
Under 2.5 goals: +197
How to Watch Manchester City vs. Liverpool
Time: 11:30 PM ET/8:30 PM PT
TV: Peacock
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Why Manchester City Will Win
Manchester City will be at home, and they play better in front of their fans. Significantly, winning this match starts with Erling Haaland, one of the best players in the game. While he has not been effective over the past two matches, he did contribute to the only goal in the last showdown at Etihad, with a goal in the 27th minute off an assist from Nathan Aker. But he, like the rest of his team, mustered nothing in the last match and just two goals over the past three matches.
Haaland had just one shot in the shutout loss, and it did not hit the target. Likewise, Jeremy Doku also leveled a shot that went wide. Bernardo Silva registered two shots, both of which missed the target.
Manchester City had seven shots, including two that hit the target. Additionally, they converted on 93 percent of their passing attempts. The Citizens also had a 56 percent possession rate. But Manchester City could not capitalize on four corner-kick chances, and also committed four yellow cards.
The defense did all they could to keep the game close. Kyle Walker had two tackles and three clears. Meanwhile, Manuel Akanji did not register a tackle but cleared the ball five times. Overall, the defense had a 56 percent tackle rate. Goalkeeper Stefan Ortega made five saves.
Manchester City will win this match if Haaland can get loose and connect with his shot attempts while also giving his teammates some chances. Then, the defense must prevent Liverpool from getting loose on the pitch.
Why Liverpool Will Win
Mohamed Salah is the man in Liverpool and one of the essential reasons why the Reds are so good. Yet, Salah did not play in the FA Cup to better prepare himself for this one.
Salah helped the Reds in a major way in the last battle with Manchester City, assisting on a goal from Cody Gapko in the 12th minute to give Liverpool the early lead. Then, Salah would connect on a penalty kick in the 78th minute to give the Reds the only other goal they needed. Luis Diaz was elemental in setting this up, making 16 passes. Salah had one goal and one assist on three shots, including the goal that hit the target. Likewise, he also made 11 passes. Gakpo had one goal on five shots, including three that hit the target. Moreover, he made 18 passes.
The offense finished with 18 shots, including seven that hit the target. Furthermore, they connected on 93 percent of their passes. The Reds also won despite only having a 44 percent possession rate. Yet, they also had seven corner-kick chances and committed only one yellow card.
Midfielder Dominic Szobaszlai took three shots, including two that hit the target. Meanwhile, defenseman Virgil Van Dijk had three shots along with one tackle. Goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher made two saves and helped preserve the win.
Liverpool will win this match if Salah and Gapko can continue to get open on the pitch and take shots. Also, they need better possession metrics to have a better chance.
Final Manchester City-Liverpool Prediction & Pick
Manchester City currently sits fourth in the Premier League, sitting at 44 points, while Liverpool is at the top of the table with 61 points. Overall, Liverpool is the better squad. However, Manchester City always puts a better effort when facing the Citizens at home. Because of that, I think this game will be tougher for Liverpool than many believe. I think this game will go down to the wire, with the result ending in a draw.
Final Manchester City-Liverpool Prediction & Pick: Draw: +280
