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The Toronto Maple Leafs will travel to Western Canada to face the Edmonton Oilers. It will be a Canadian clash at Rogers Place as we continue our NHL odds series and make a Maple Leafs-Oilers prediction and pick.
The Maple Leafs are 24-8 in their past 32 games against the Oilers. Also, they are 7-3 over the past 10 games against the Oilers, including 3-2 over the last five games at Rogers Place. The Maple Leafs edged out the Oilers 4-3 in an overtime thriller on November 16, 2024 in Toronto.
Here are the Maple Leafs-Oilers NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NHL Odds: Maple Leafs-Oilers Odds
Toronto Maple Leafs: +1.5 (-192)
Moneyline: +130
Edmonton Oilers: -1.5 (+154)
Moneyline: -160
Over: 6.5 (+102)
Under: 6.5 (-124)
How To Watch Maple Leafs vs Oilers
Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT
TV: ESPN
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Why the Maple Leafs Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Maple Leafs lost Matthew Knies to an injury recently, which is a big blow for a team severely lacking depth. That depth helped them beat the Oilers last time, as Knies was one of the best players in that game. The Maple Leafs need more of that as they currently sit 30-19-2 and in second place in the Atlantic Division.
The Leafs fell behind 1-0 just under two minutes into the game last time. However, Bobby McMann scored off a pass from John Tavares. The second period was not good, as the Leafs allowed Connor McDavid to fire a powerplay goal. Later, Knies tied it up before McMann gave the Leafs a lead with a conversion a minute later. Unfortunately, they allowed Leon Draisaitl to tie the game with 1:29 left in the game. Mitchell Marner finished the game off with an overtime winner.
The Maple Leafs won despite firing only 22 shots at the net. Also, they only won 44 percent of the faceoffs. The Leafs also struggled on the powerplay, going 0 for 4. Remember, Auston Matthews did not play in that game, and William Nylander was held off the scoresheet.
Anthony Stolarz played well enough last time, allowing three goals while making 27 saves. Ultimately, he will play behind a defense that went 1 for 2 on the penalty kill. That defense also had 18 hits and blocked 27 shots.
The Maple Leafs will cover the spread if Matthews and Marner can create numerous scoring opportunities. Then, they must defend the crease and not let one of the best players in the game from dominating.
Why the Oilers Could Cover the Spread/Win
Evander Kane may return soon after not playing a single second this season. For now, the Oilers will rely on their current weapons, and they have plenty.
Adam Henrique was one of those weapons, scoring early against the Leafs. Later, Connor McDavid converted his powerplay chance. When the Oilers fell behind, they overcame adversity, and Draisaitl sent it into overtime. While the Oilers lost in overtime, their ability to at l;east snag a point showed how good they can be. McDavid and Draisaitl each finished with one goal and one assist. Meanwhile, Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins each had an assist.
The offense fired 30 shots at the net. Furthermore, they won 56 percent of the faceoffs while also going 1 for 2 on the powerplay. Edmonton will look to replicate that effort again. The offense was not the issue. However, defense and goaltending were a major issue in their loss to the Leafs.
Stuart Skinners struggled, allowing four goals and making just 18 saves. Yet, he and his defense killed all four penalties they faced. The defense also leveled 15 hits and blocked 17 shots. Ultimately, they must do more to give themselves the best chance of winning this game.
The Oilers will cover the spread if McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, and Nugent-Hopkins can continue to create plays and set up numerous scoring chances. Then, the defense must cut off the angles and not allow the Maple Leafs to fire squarely at the net.
Final Maple Leafs-Oilers Prediction & Pick
The Maple Leafs are 26-25 against the spread, while the Oilers are 20-31 against the spread. Moreover, the Leafs are 11-10 against the spread on the road, while the Oilers are 9-19 against the spread at home. The Maple Leafs are 22-26-3 against the over/under, while the Oilers are 21-27-3 against the over/under.
The Maple Leafs have not had a good week, getting shut down at home. Yet, they have displayed better play on the road recently and have done better against the Oilers. I expect this to be a close game with the Maple Leafs going into Edmonton and bouncing back from their poor showing last time and covering the spread on the road.
Final Maple Leafs-Oilers Prediction & Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs: +1.5 (-192)