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The No. 15 seed Colgate Raiders (26-8) face the No. 2 seed Texas Longhorns (26-8) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Action tips off at 7:25 p.m. ET. Below we continue our March Madness odds series with a Colgate-Texas prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Colgate has lost just a single game since December as they won their Patriot League regular season and tournament crowns. The Raiders covered 52% of their regular season games while 61% went over the projected point total. Texas has won four straight including the Big 12 championship and are among the hottest teams in the tournament. The Longhorns covered 50% of their games while 52% went over.
Here are the Colgate-Texas March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Colgate-Texas Odds
Colgate: +13.5 (-112)
Texas: -13.5 (-108)
Over: 150.5 (-110)
Under: 150.5 (-110)
How To Watch Colgate vs. Texas
TV: TBS
Stream: March Madness Live
Time: 7:25 ET/ 4:25 p.m. PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Colgate Could Cover The Spread
Colgate is a legitimate basketball team who has a number of notable wins for a No. 15 seed. The Raiders played a strong non-conference slate that included games against Syracuse, Auburn, and Duquesne. While they couldn't quite pull it out against Auburn or Duquesne, their 12-point road win over Syracuse certainly garners attention. Colgate ran through their conference slate, losing just a single game en route to Patriot League regular season and tournament championships. That being said, Colgate still projects as a low seed in the advanced metrics as they sit at No. 114 in KenPom and No. 101 in NET.
The Raiders are a serious threat to take down Texas in the first round thanks to their prolific offense. Colgate can absolutely stroke from beyond the arc where their 41% three-point percentage leads the entire country. This bodes especially well for them against Texas considering the outside shot is the weak point of their defense. In addition to their outside shooting, the Raiders do a great job making the extra pass as they play a highly unselfish brand of basketball. Colgate's 18.3 APG ranks third nationally. while their 13.4% turnover rate is among the 25-lowest in Division-1. An X-factor tonight is that the Raiders do an exceptional job defending without fouling as they commit the fewest fouls per game.
Colgate is a fun upset pick because of their offensive balance. All five starters average over 10 points per game – with senior Tucker Richardson leading the way with 13.9 PPG. However, the guys to look out for are fellow seniors Oliver Lynch-Daniels and Ryan Moffatt. Both snipers average over 2.0 threes per game with the two shooting 45% and 50% from three, respectively.
Why Texas Could Cover The Spread
Texas had one of the most remarkable regular seasons in the country as there was a good case for the Longhorns to be a No. 1 seed. Texas had a stellar nonconference run that saw them take down Gonzaga and Creighton. They stayed strong throughout a brutal Big 12 slate and closed the season red-hot with four consecutive wins and a conference championship. The Longhorns did that despite losing their head coach halfway through the season. Having already faced a ton of adversity this season, it would surprise no one to see them make a significant run in March.
If Texas is going to make a run, they'll have to first get by a frisky Colgate team. The Longhorns are incredibly balanced as they rank in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. While they can struggle to hit from beyond the arc consistently, the Longhorns have the type of offense that doesn't rely on three-point shooting. However, they will have to be better on the glass if they want to cover a hefty spread against Colgate. The Longhorns ranked outside the top 150 in both offensive and defensive rebound rates during the regular season.
The X-factor for Texas is senior guard Marcus Carr. Carr is the ultimate “hero ball” point guard as he can just as easily win or lose you a game. The former Minnesota star made his mark on the Big 12 this season with averages of 15.9 PPG and 4.1 APG. After scoring 17 in the Big 12 championship, don't be surprised to see Carr chucking shots early and often against the Raiders.
Final Colgate-Texas Prediction & Pick
This is one of my favorite games of the first round. Colgate is a solid basketball team with a legit offense. They project more as a 14 or 13 seed rather than the 15 they got. Texas has been a nice story and is coming in hot after winning the Big 12 tournament but I like the Raiders to make some noise and cover the spread. Given that they're such a large underdog there is something to be said about looking at their +680 money line as well.
Final Colgate-Texas Prediction & Pick: Colgate +13.5 (-112)
