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The Miami Marlins will begin a three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday at Citizens Bank Park. It will be a National League East showdown as we continue our MLB odds series and make a Marlins-Phillies prediction and pick.
Marlins-Phillies Projected Starters
Sandy Alcantara vs. Zack Wheeler
Sandy Alcantara (2-0) with a 4.70 ERA
Last Start: Alcantara labored in his last start, going 5 2/3 innings while allowing four earned runs on five hits while walking four and striking out just one in a win over the Washington Nationals.
Away Splits: Alcantara is making his first start away from LoanDepot Center this week.
Zack Wheeler (1-1) with a 4.07 ERA
Last Start: Wheeler was inconsistent in his last start, going six innings while allowing four earned runs on seven hits while striking out three and walking one in a loss to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Home Splits: Wheeler thrived in his one home start, going 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA at Citizens Bank Park.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Phillies Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-128)
Moneyline: +184
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+108)
Moneyline: -220
Over: 7.5 (-105)
Under: 7.5 (-115)
How to Watch Marlins vs. Phillies
Time: 6:45 PM ET/3:45 PM PT
TV: FanDuel Sports Florida
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Marlins have hovered over .500 through the first few weeks of the season. Therefore, there is some hope as this team has not completely tumbled.
The Marlins have hit the ball well, ranking eighth in batting average and ninth in on-base percentage. However, they have struggled to turn those hits into runs, ranking just 20th in scoring. The Marlins also lack power, ranking 25th in home runs and 20th in slugging percentage.
Xavier Edwards is still electric all over the plate and on the basepaths. So far, he is batting just .328 with six RBIs and 10 runs. Jesus Sanchez made his season debut this week. Ultimately, the Marlins are aware of his capabilities, and he poses a threat to drive runners home. Matt Mervis has been amazing, batting .275 with six home runs, 12 RBIs, and seven runs.
Alcantara is a centerpiece of this rotation and will look to bounce back from his last start. However, he will have a tough time, as he has a 6-8 record with a 3.40 ERA over 17 career starts against the Phillies. Alcantara will turn it over to a bullpen that is the second-worst in baseball in team ERA. Additionally, they don't have an established closer, with Anthony Bender likely pushing for the job.
The Marlins will cover the spread if Edwards, Sanchez, and Mervis can all drive the baseball. Then, they need Alcantara to hit his spots and avoid giving up the long ball.
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies have been solid at the plate, ranking 11th in batting average and eighth in on-base percentage. Yet, they have been inconsistent in their scoring, ranking 17th in runs, 18th in home runs, and 14th in slugging percentage.
Bryce Harper continues to thrive, and he will look to keep the ball rolling. Significantly, he is batting .308 (12 for 39) with one home run and six RBIs against Alcantara. Trea Turner has done even more, hitting .361 (13 for 36) with one home run and five RBIs in his career against Alcantara. Meanwhile, Alec Bohm has done well against the Alcantara, batting .346 (9 for 26) with six RBIs in his career. Bohm has struggled recently, so facing Alcantara might help.
Wheeler has dominated the Marlins, going 11-4 with a 2.73 ERA over 25 career games against them. Recently, he hurled six innings and allowed just one run in his last start against them on September 6, 2024. When Wheeler exits the game, he will hand it over to a bullpen that is 17th in team ERA. If the Phillies have the lead, they will turn it over to Jose Alvarado, who is 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA and three saves.
The Phillies will cover the spread if Harper, Turner, and Bohm continue their string of success against Alcantara. Then, they need Wheeler to dominate.
Final Marlins-Phillies Prediction & Pick
The Marlins were 8-9 against the spread coming into Thursday, while the Phillies were 10-8. Furthermore, the Marlins were 2-3 against the spread on the road, while the Phillies were 6-3 against the spread at home.
This will be a fun pitchers' duel. However, the historical stats favor the Phillies. Alcantara is one of the best pitchers in the world. Yet, he struggles against the Phillies. Will it make a difference? I think it will, to an extent, and it will help the Phillies cover the spread in front of their fans.
Final Marlins-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+108)
