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In the final game of the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament, the Sacramento Kings (40-42) will host the Dallas Mavericks (39-43). It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Mavericks-Kings prediction and pick.
The Kings enter the matchup with a better record and more momentum, winning four of their last six regular season games. Sacramento ended its season on a high note, beating the Phoenix Suns 109-98 in its regular-season finale to clinch home-court advantage.
The Mavericks limp into the play-in tournament after one of the most dramatic ends to a season in recent memory. While fans berated general manager Nico Harrison for trading Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers, the team suffered another midseason loss when Kyrie Irving suffered a season-ending torn ACL. Regardless, Dallas enters the postseason as the winner of just one of its last five regular-season games. They most recently dropped a 132-97 blowout loss to the Memphis Grizzlies.
Here are the Mavericks-Kings NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Play-In Odds: Mavericks-Kings Odds
Dallas Mavericks: +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +158
Sacramento Kings: -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -188
Over: 216 (-106)
Under: 216 (-114)
How To Watch Mavericks vs. Kings NBA Play-In 2025
Time: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Mavericks Will Cover the Spread/Win
Article Continues Below
The Mavericks will not have Kyrie Irving but managed to get Anthony Davis back for the final two weeks of the regular season. Since his return, Dallas is 5-3 with Davis back in the lineup, including wins over the Orlando Magic, Chicago Bulls, and Atlanta Hawks. After a brief adjustment period, Davis has averaged 24.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 3.3 blocks in the month of April.
With Davis peaking at the right time, he also gets a golden opportunity to thrive against the Kings. Sacramento allowed the fifth-most points to forwards in the regular season with 65.1 per game. Davis figures to match up with Keegan Murray, against whom he will outweigh by nearly 30 pounds.
It has not been just Davis thriving for the Mavericks over the final stretch of the regular season. Without Doncic and Irving, Naji Marshall and Jaden Hardy have thrived with their additional opportunities. Both players have a chance to attack a soft Sacramento perimeter defense that allowed the seventh-most points to guards in the regular season.
Why the Kings Will Cover the Spread/Win
Two months after the Luka Doncic trade, nobody outside of Nico Harrison's circle has gained any understanding about the move. But with a roster that has no chance of making a deep playoff run, the Mavericks should only seem to care about the upcoming draft lottery. With a loss, they have a chance to move up to No. 11 in the pre-lottery order. However, should they beat the Kings, they fall out of the lottery completely. Sacramento, meanwhile, does not even own its 2025 first-round pick unless it falls in the top 12.
Even with Davis back, the Mavericks went just 2-5 to end the regular season. They were an even worse 3-7 against the spread over their final 10 games. In that time, they ranked 26th in offensive rating and 18th in defensive rating. Since Irving went down on March 3, the Mavericks are just 7-14 straight-up and ATS. Of those wins, only four came against teams in the playoff or play-in bracket.
As Western Conference rivals, the two teams are frequently familiar with one another. The Kings owned the series in the regular season, sweeping the three matchups 3-0. In the only competitive game of the three, Irving carried Dallas with a 30-point near triple-double effort in a one-point loss. His heroics will not be on the court for the Mavericks this time around.
Final Mavericks-Kings Prediction & Pick
Everything about this matchup suggests a Kings victory. Nobody wants to back the Mavericks at this point in the season, and Kyrie Irving's absence gives no reason to believe in a team that went 2-5 to end the regular season. But for as dysfunctional as Dallas is, the Kings are equally as much of a wild card. Sacramento also endured a rough post-trade deadline adjustment period after sending De'Aaron Fox to the San Antonio Spurs.
Not only does Davis tend to fare well against Sabonis, but the Kings tend to struggle to defend every area he excels in. Sacramento allowed the third-most midrange shots and ninth-most points to pick-and-roll rollers in the regular season. Overall, the Mavericks love to play with speed, running at the 12th-fastest pace in the league. The Kings have struggled against similar teams, including concerning late-year losses to the Washington Wizards, Phoenix Suns, and Orlando Magic.
Backing an Anthony Davis-led team is always scary, given his rocky injury history. But for one game, Dallas has enough advantages to keep the score close, even if they do not pull off the outright victory. The Mavericks' roster has more veterans with playoff experience than the Kings do, and Jason Kidd gets a favorable head coaching matchup against interim rookie Doug Christie.
Final Mavericks-Kings Prediction & Pick: Mavericks +4.5 (-110), Under 216 (-114)
