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Missouri looks to stay perfect in the 2023 season when it squares off with SEC East foe Vanderbilt at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville. We continue our college football odds series with a Missouri-Vanderbilt prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Tigers are now 4-0 in Eli Drinkwitz's fourth season after earning a 34-27 win against Memphis in Week 4. It's the best start for Missouri since 2013, which was enough to score a No. 23 ranking in the newest Associated Press Top 25 poll.
Meanwhile, the Commodores couldn't keep up with Kentucky in a 45-28 loss. Vanderbilt has lost three straight games after winning its first two.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Missouri-Vanderbilt Odds
Missouri: -13.5 (-105)
Vanderbilt: +13.5 (-115)
Over: 54.5 (-110)
Under: 54.5 (-110)
How to Watch Missouri vs. Vanderbilt
TV: SEC Network
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET / 1:00 p.m. PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Missouri Will Cover The Spread
The defense was expected to be Missouri's biggest strength this season, and it has been stellar. The Tigers rank in the top 50 nationally in a variety of categories: 12th in yards per rush (2.6), 16th in rushing yards per game allowed (82.5), 22nd in yards per completion allowed (10.3), 32nd in sacks per game (3.0), 32nd in yards per play allowed (4.7), 42nd in yards per game allowed (321.5), and 50th in scoring defense (20.8 PPG).
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However, it's not just about the defense as it was a season ago. The offense has been just as important to Missouri's success. The Tigers are posting 431.2 yards per game (43rd nationally), thanks in large part to the play of quarterback Brady Cook. He has thrown for 1,073 yards and seven touchdowns and doesn't have a single interception through four games. His QB rating (185.2) is 35th in ESPN's QBR rankings.
Cook's efforts have been supported by a good running game and a star wide receiver. Cody Schrader is averaging 6.2 yards per carry and has 403 yards and two touchdowns this season. Luther Burden is having a breakout season in his move to the slot role, posting 32 receptions for 504 yards and three touchdowns. That combination leads a revamped Missouri offense that is capable of putting up a lot of points moving forward.
Even better, they have a terrific matchup against the Commodores' defense. Vanderbilt is allowing 384.2 yards per game (93rd nationally) and 32.4 points per game (112th nationally). Kentucky scored 24 unanswered points against them a week ago, and UNLV scored 30 unanswered points against them the week before that. The Tigers can take advantage of that trend.
Why Vanderbilt Will Cover The Spread
If Vanderbilt is going to cover the spread, it's gonna be all about utilizing its top playmaker. Missouri's defense has been much better against the run than the pass, allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw for 239.0 yards per contest (87th nationally) and post a 63.3 percent completion percentage (96th nationally). Teams know it's difficult to run against Missouri, so finding points through the air is the best option.
Enter Will Sheppard. Despite Vanderbilt quarterback A.J. Swann struggling to find consistency (1,290 YDs, 53.3 CMP%, 11 TDs, 7 INTs), Sheppard continues to be one of the most productive wide receivers in the SEC. He leads the conference in receiving touchdowns (6) and he's tied for second with 27 receptions (t-2nd). Sure, playing from behind in most games has allowed Sheppard the opportunity to increase his totals, but the talent is undeniable.
To pull off an upset as a nearly two-touchdown underdog, you need game-changing plays. Sheppard has shown his ability to do that, and he's Vanderbilt's best chance at making this a game.
Two other wide receivers – London Humphreys and Jayden McGowan – also have the potential to break through the Missouri secondary. Humphreys is averaging 24.9 yards per reception, and he had a 56-yard touchdown against UNLV. McGowan can do a little of everything as a primary receiver and an electric kick returner (97-yard TD return in the season opener). He ranks second on the team in receptions (23) while grabbing a 50-yard catch in the Week 3 loss to Wake Forest.
Final Missouri-Vanderbilt Prediction & Pick
Missouri has won three straight against the Commodores, and a fourth straight is likely given the matchup. However, the Tigers have played a lot of close games this season. Three of their four wins have come by seven points or less, and four of the past five games in this series have been decided by nine points or less. Vanderbilt is in desperation mode at this point, while Missouri has let teams hang around in pretty much every game this season. This seems like a lot of points, so the underdogs are the better bet in this spot.
Final Missouri-Vanderbilt Prediction & Pick: Vanderbilt +13.5 (-115)
