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Buckle up baseball fans! A late July matchup with major playoff implications on the line in the American League, the Cleveland Guardians will finish their four-game trip to Fenway Park to battle it out with the Boston Red Sox. It is time for our MLB odds series, where our Guardians-Red Sox prediction and pick will be unveiled.
Within 2 1/2 games of a Wild Card spot, the Guardians have won seven of ten contests to trend towards being buyers at this year's trade deadline. A series win against Boston would only bolster the chances that Cleveland will go all-in to making a late-season run at the postseason. On the bump in this one will be the righty Triston McKenzie, who is 7-6 with a 3.11 ERA in 17 games started.
How the mighty have fallen. Now sitting one game below the .500 mark at 49-50, things have gone from bad to worse for Red Sox nation. Losers in 11 of their last 13 games, Boston's season is now hanging in the balance. With each game possessing massive implications for postseason play from here on out, the Red Sox will turn to RHP Kutter Crawford. Crawford currently has a losing mark at 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA in his 14 season starts.
Here are the Guardians-Red Sox MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Red Sox Odds
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+134)
Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-162)
Over: 9.5 (+100)
Under: 9.5 (-122)
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Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
Now at 50-47, Cleveland has to be feeling good about themselves nearing the end of July. Once multiple games under .500, the Guardians have played consistently above-average and have slowly built themselves into playoff contenders with only a couple of months left to go during the season.
To begin, Cleveland has certainly gotten more production out of their regulars of late. Because of this, the Guardians automatically have a better chance to cover the spreads in each game they play in large part to players stepping up when the team needs it the most. One player who has possibly given Cleveland the biggest boost has been outfielder, Myles Straw. Over the course of his last 16 games, Straw has seen a massive resurgence in his hitting numbers. Before then, Straw had been slashing a lowly .194 before going 19 for his next 55 shortly after. With Straw at the forefront along with names like Josh Naylor who mashed a tie-breaking homer in yesterday's win, the Guardians are seemingly finding their groove at the plate.
Another element that may give Cleveland the edge on Thursday will be Triston McKenzie himself. After getting shellacked for seven runs by the Twins on June 27th, Mckenzie has been nearly perfect. In his four starts since, the soon-to-be 25-year-old hurler is 3-0 with a dazzling 0.34 earned-run average.
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Whether it has been getting pounded for a mind-blowing 28 runs at the hands of a division rival in the Blue Jays or losing track of harmless fly balls that have resulted in inside-the-park home runs, things can't get much worse in Bean Town. This play has turned into a direct correlation in the win/loss department as well, as the Red Sox now sit in dead last out in the AL East. Simply put, Boston has officially hit rock bottom.
Nevertheless, this roster is far too talented to be losing as much as they have been. For starters, the Red Sox are fifth in the majors when it comes to batting average with a .255 mark. Also, Boston hitters are slugging .417 and even have scored the eleventh most runs in the league with 452 total. Boston is led by superstar third-baseman Rafael Devers who continues to show the baseball world what he is all about but was recently placed on the injured list thanks to an inflamed right hamstring. The Red Sox are also without the services of Trevor Story, who has been sidelined with a hand injury. This does not bode well for a ball club that has been slightly off in their approach at the dish.
Not to mention, the pitching staff has been extremely subpar. Allowing double-digit runs in three of their previous ten games, Boston is struggling to keep their head above water. One glaring stat that should make the entire state of Massachusetts physically sick has been that Boston starters are 0-12 with a 7.65 ERA during the month of July. This may seem impossible to accomplish, but Red Sox arms have done the unthinkable. Now, the ‘Sox are seeking that one stellar outing from a pitcher that will get them back on track.
Final Guardians-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
Are the Red Sox anywhere near trustworthy enough for them to cover the spread and split this four-game series? Already shorthanded, they cannot afford to get behind early in this one, as it will be vital for them to string together highly productive at-bats all night long. Of course, easier said than done. Put your money on a Cleveland squad that is trending in a more positive direction in comparison to a scuffling Red Sox bunch.
Final Guardians-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Guardians -1.5 (+134)
