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The Chicago Cubs come in after losing three of four to the Dodgers and sit in third in the NL Central. The San Diego Padres are 12-12 but just won three of four against the NL West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Cubs prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Padres' offense is struggling so far on the season, but Fernando Tatis Jr. is back and starting to get going. They just took three of four against the Diamondbacks, scoring 19 runs in the four games in the process. This is a major improvement, as they had scored just two runs in the three games against the Braves, and save the ten-run outburst against the Brewers, had not scored over four runs in nine games. Drew Smyly will return to the mound in the series after his near-perfect game, but not until the second game of the series. In this one, it will be Justin Steele taking the mound to defeat the Dodgers.
Here are the Padres-Cubs MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Cubs Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+160)
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-194)
Over: 7.5 (+100)
Under: 7.5 (-122)
How To Watch Padres vs. Cubs
TV: BSSD/MARQ
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 7:40 PM ET/ 4:40 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres need to find consistent scoring. They are currently 23rd in baseball with just 92 runs scored on the year. They are not hitting well, sitting 28th in baseball with a .216 batting average on the season, and their .301 OBP ranks them 26th. They've got guys like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Nelson Cruz who can all hit with power but have combined for just four home runs on the year. The power production for the team has come from Xander Bogaerts, who leads the team with five home runs and 12 RBIs on the season. He has been the best player for the Padres, but the others need to catch up.
Juan Soto has hit four home runs but is hitting just .198 so far on the season with 24 strikeouts. He has been walked 22 times which brings his on-base percentage to .369, but Soto needs to make more contact. Machado is hitting just .220, and also striking out, with 22 strikeouts on the year. He is not walking nearly as much as Soto, and his OBP sits are .250. Strikeouts are a theme for the Padres, with Trent Grisham leading the team with 27 strikeouts on the season while hitting just .205. The middle of the batting order is not making consistent contact on the ball, but the Cubs' pitching has struggled against lefties. They have given some homeruns up on the year, and typically do so in bunches.
Pitching tonight will be Blake Snell, who currently boasts an 0-3 record with a 6.00 ERA. Opponents are hitting .292 against him, and with a .282 xBA, it's clear that Snell is due for some positive regression. He has had some control issues though, with 12 walks in his last three starts, and serving up four home runs as well. He has yet to pitch six full innings in the year, but if the Padres can get ahead, he may not have to. The bullpen has been solid and could continue that trend today.
Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
The Cubs come in after falling to the Dodgers three times in four games. In that time they scored 22 runs in the four games, but while that seems high, 13 of them came in one game. Outside of Drew Smyly pitching a gem, the pitching staff struggled, as they gave up 22 runs in the other three games. One the season though, the Cubs are the second-best batting average in all of baseball, with a .280 batting average. Their .349 OBP and .796 OPS also sit them second in baseball. The offense can produce, but they need to get back to that in a hurry.
Leading that charge should be the combination of Nico Horner, Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, and Patrick Wisdom. Horner is currently hitting .355 on the season with a .400 on-base percentage. He has 11 RBIs on the season but has mainly been a pain on the basepath. Horner has scored 20 times on the year and stolen nine bases for a team that is top five in stolen bases on the year. Beyond him is Ian Happ. Happ has been getting on base at a .418 clip this year, leading the team in walks and doubles. He joins Cody Bellinger with four stolen bases on the year. Speaking of Bellinger, he has contributed 15 RBIs to the team with five home runs, both second on the team. The team leader in both of those categories is Patrick Wisdom. Wisdom has belted nine home runs this year, and 18 RBIs.
On the hill will be Justin Steele. He has been highly effective on the year with a 1.44 ground ball rate. Steele has allowed just one earned run or fewer in three of his four starts this year. His dominance on the mound can be attributed to his ability to keep the ball on the ground, as evidenced by his impressive 58.1% ground ball rate. The slider has also been a major weapon on the year, as opponents have managed a measly 2-for-33 (.061) against it.
Final Padres-Cubs Prediction & Pick
This should be a quality game. The Padres' biggest concern needs to be scoring. The issue is, they are facing a great ground ball pitcher. Steele loves to keep the ball down and cause ground outs. Without speed on the basepath and with fewer opportunities to drive the ball, the Padres may struggle. Their only hope is to grind out at-bats and work up Steele's pitch count. If they do that, maybe they can get to the bullpen and face a pitcher who will allow a few more fly balls. Nevertheless, Steele is pitching great. He will strike out plenty of batters. His over/under of 5.5 strikeouts may be worth playing the over at plus money tonight, as the Cubs get the win.
Final Padres-Cubs Prediction & Pick: Cubs -1.5 (-194)
