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The Boston Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners will face off in the rubber match of a three-game series on Sunday afternoon. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Red Sox-Mariners prediction and pick.
The Mariners defeated the Red Sox 7-6 on Saturday night. First, the Mariners trailed 3-2 in the second inning when Julio Rodriguez crushed an inside fastball to deep left field. It was his eighth home run in 2022, giving the M's a 4-3 lead. Later, J.D. Martinez gave Boston the lead back when he smashed a two-run bomb to left field in the fifth. The Mariners responded in the seventh when Abraham Toro clapped an RBI double to left.
Bobby Dalbec pummeled a home run to deep left field in the ninth to give the Sox a 6-5 lead heading into a save situation. Hansel Robles entered the game hoping to close it out for Boston. After getting the first hitter out, Robles got into trouble when he walked J.P. Crawford. There were runners on first and second with two outs when Toro came to the plate. Then, Toro smacked an RBI single to right-center to tie the game. Dylan Moore followed with a single to left-center to win the game in a walk-off fashion.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Red Sox-Mariners odds:
MLB odds: Red Sox-Mariners Odds
Red Sox: +1.5 (-172)
Mariners: -1.5 (+142)
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
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Why The Red Sox Could Could Cover The Spread
The Red Sox have not officially named a starting pitcher as of this time. Starting pitcher Garrett Whitlock will head to the 15-day injured reserve list after suffering a hip injury. Therefore, it leaves the Sox scrambling to fill his spot. They may go with a bullpen game and toss as many relievers as possible. Their bullpen currently ranks 11th in the majors in team ERA so this option might not be the worst idea.
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The Sox also called up Kutter Crawford to potentially fill the void. Crawford last pitched on May 13, allowing just one hit through two innings of work. A few bad games ballooned his ERA to 8.44. He is an option to start the game as an opener. Additionally, the pitching staff hopes the inconsistent offense backs them up.
The Red Sox rank fourth in batting average, 14h in on-base percentage, sixth in runs, 17th in home runs, and seventh in slugging percentage. Rafael Devers has been a marvel for the Sox, batting .335 with 13 home runs and 33 RBIs, and 46 runs scored. Additionally, Xavier Bogaerts continues to shine, hitting .321 with six home runs and 27 RBIs. Martinez remains impeccable, hitting .347 with seven home runs and 21 RBIs. These three have carried the Red Sox with their bats and are usually why Boston wins.
The Red Sox will cover the spread if their pitching staff can hold the fort and keep them in the game. Also, they need Devers, Bogaerts, and Martinez to produce offensively.
Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread
The Mariners will go with Robbie Ray on the mound for the finale. Unfortunately, it has not been a successful season for Ray as he is 5-6 with a 4.97 ERS. It follows a season where he won the Cy Young award. Ray had another sloppy start, allowing four runs (three earned) on eight hits through five innings in his last start. He has not pitched deep into games much this year, going seven innings once. Also, Ray has had a mixture of results, allowing four or more runs six times this season. It does not get any easier today as he faces a Boston team he has struggled against throughout his career. Ray is 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA through seven career appearances against Boston. Therefore, he may have trouble, unless he gets some offensive support.
The Mariners rank 17th in batting average, fifth in on-base percentage, 22nd in runs scored, 13th in home runs, and 14th in slugging percentage. Eugenio Suarez has been their stallion, slugging 11 home runs with 32 RBIs. However, he is the definition of boom-or-bust, as he is only batting .239. Ty France and J.P. Crawford are their contact hitters, as France is batting .329 while Crawford is hitting .304. Otherwise, the Mariners do not have another starter hitting over .270.
The Mariners will cover the spread if Ray can find some of his old magic and throw an excellent outing. Likewise, he needs help from Suarez, France and Crawford, and the rest of the Seattle lineup.
Final Red Sox-Mariners Prediction & Pick
It is still difficult to trust Ray. Additionally, how can you trust the Boston relievers to hold the fort for nine innings? Both teams will score some runs in this game and prosper.
Final Red Sox-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Over: 8.5 (-110)
