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The Boston Red Sox will open a four-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field in Central Florida on Monday. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Red Sox-Rays prediction and pick.
The Red Sox come into this series having split a four-game series with the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Boston is 4-6 over 10 games. Now, they look to build some momentum as they hit the road. The Sox are 24-19 on the road this season. However, they are 7-12 at Tropicana Field since 2020.
The Rays are coming off a series where the Cincinnati Red swept them at the Great American Ballpark. Today, they are back home and looking for refuge. The Rays are 5-5 over their last 10 games, and 6-4 over the last 10 games played at the Trop. Tampa Bay is 25-17 in 42 home games in 2022. The Rays lead the season series 4-2.
The Red Sox will send Brayan Bello on the mound. Bello made his MLB debut last week, tossing four innings while allowing four earned runs on six hits with two strikeouts and three walks. He will look for a better performance in this one as his record stands at 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA. Meanwhile, Jeffrey Springs takes the mound for the Rays. Springs is 3-2 with a 2.53 ERA over 19 games (11 starts). Recently, he tossed four innings against the Red Sox, allowing three earned runs on five hits, including two home runs. Springs has faced the Red Sox nine times in his career, with last week's game being the only start.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Red Sox-Rays odds:
MLB odds: Red Sox-Rays Odds
Red Sox: -1.5 (+150)
Rays: +1.5 (-182)
Over: 8 (-102)
Under: 8 (-120)
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Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
The Red Sox have held their own this year mainly due to solid pitching and spectacular offense. The Red Sox are first in batting average, third in on-base percentage, fourth in runs, and eighth in slugging percentage.
Rafael Devers is leading the pace with a .327 batting average, 19 home runs, 51 RBIs, and 59 runs scored. Alternatively, it has not gone as well against the Rays, where he is batting .235 (4 for 17) with one home run, two RBIs, and two runs over four games in 2022. Devers is batting .264 with seven home runs, 40 RBIs, and 36 runs scored over 67 career games against the Rays. Additionally, he is batting .255 with four home runs, 25 RBIs, and 18 runs scored over 38 games at Tropicana Field.
Xander Bogaerts remains one of the best, as he is batting .311 with seven home runs, 35 RBIs, and 50 runs scored in 2022. However, it has been inconsistent against the Rays, where he is batting .263 (5 for 19) with one home run, three RBIs, and three runs scored over five games against Tampa Bay. Bogaerts is batting .299 with 12 home runs, 68 RBIs, and 74 runs scored over 135 games in his career against the Rays. Likewise, he is batting .281 with four home runs, 19 RBIs, and 38 runs scored in 70 games at Tropicana Field.
The Red Sox cover the spread if they get a good outing out of their starter and if Devers and Bogaerts can produce offensively. Boston needs those two to produce offensively and bring runners home.
Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
The Rays are among the bottom tier in hitting in all five categories. However, they do have two guys that can rake. Randy Arozarena is batting .255 with 10 home runs, 40 RBIs, and 40 runs scored. However, he has struggled against the Sox, batting .208 with one home run, three RBIs, and five runs over six games. It has not gone well for him in his career, as Arozarena is batting .247 with three home runs, seven RBIs, and 16 runs scored over 24 games. Moreover, he is batting .180 with two home runs, two RBIs, and six runs over 14 games against the Red Sox at Tropicana Field.
Yandy Diaz is consistent, with a batting average of .299, three home runs, 20 RBIs, and 36 runs scored. Also, Diaz loves facing the Red Sox, as he is batting .529 (9 for 17) with one home run, two RBIs, and five runs scored over five games against Boston. He is batting .335 with five home runs, 20 RBIs, and 28 runs scored in 47 games against the Sox in his career. Additionally, Diaz is batting .347n with three home runs, nine RBIs, and 14 runs scored over 22 games at Tropicana Field.
The Rays will cover the spread if Springs gives them a good outing. Moreover, they need offense, and it will come from Arozarena and Diaz.
Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick
The Rays have gone 4-2 against the Red Sox and won by two or more runs in three of those games. Likewise, they have shown the ability to produce runs against Boston. Right now, they are the better team in head-to-head play. Boston has control of second place in the AL East, but by the slimmest of margins. The Rays could easily tilt second back in their favor in this series. Expect this game to get exciting, with the Rays pulling away at the end.
Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick: Rays: +1.5 (-182)
