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The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees will begin an intense four-game series on Thursday night at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Red Sox-Yankees prediction and pick, laid out below.
The Boston Red Sox have struggled to a 72-76 record, last place in the AL East, and the only team in the division with a record below .500. Boston is nine games out of the final AL Wild Card spot, with just 14 games left to play, making any hope of the playoffs a near impossibility.
New York is in first place in the AL East with a 90-58 record, now six and a half games ahead of second-place Toronto. With Aaron Judge now on the cusp of history, every game down the stretch has now become must-watch television. The Yankees are on the cusp of clinching the AL East, and these four games against Boston can go a long way towards the goal.
Here are the Red Sox-Yankees MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Yankees Odds
Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-154)
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+128)
Over: 8 (-114)
Under: 8 (-106)
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Boston will send Michael Wacha to the mound, bringing an 11-1 record to the mound. Wacha owns a 2.61 ERA with 92 strikeouts in 114 innings across his 20 starts. In his only start against New York this season, Wacha fired seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. Batters are hitting just .216 against Wacha, a career-low rate for Wacha. The changeup has been the headliner for Wacha, holding batters to a .147 batting average against, with 55 strikeouts in 129 at-bats.
Boston's bullpen has struggled this season, but there are two bright spots. John Schreiber, who was acquired off the waiver wire from Detroit before the 2021 season, has pitched to a 1.95 ERA with 67 strikeouts in 60 innings. Opponents have hit just .180 against Schreiber. Garrett Whitlock had been great, with a 2.75 ERA in his 22 relief appearances, but now was placed on the Injured List yesterday. The timing of the injury has put Whitlock's season in jeopardy.
Rafael Devers leads the team with 27 home runs and 84 RBI, ranking second with 39 doubles and a .293 batting average. Xander Bogaerts leads the team with a .317 batting average, hitting 14 home runs and 38 doubles, stealing eight bases. Trevor Story is second on the team with 16 home runs and leads the team with 13 stolen bases. Story has only played in 94 games this season due to a hand injury, one on a long list of injuries for the Red Sox this season. JD Martinez leads the team with 40 doubles, hitting .271 with 12 home runs. Alex Verdugo is hitting .280, with eight home runs and 35 doubles, which ranks fourth on the team. Boston leads the league with 330 doubles and ranks fourth with a .259 batting average.
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
New York's dominant season is bolstered by Aaron Judge's historic pace. Judge leads all of baseball with 60 home runs and 128 RBI, leading the American League with a .317 batting average. The last Triple Crown winner was Miguel Cabrera, who won the American League Triple Crown in 2012. Judge is set to break Roger Maris' American League home run record, which has stood since 1961. Judge also has a 14.7 percent walk rate, which ranks in the 98th percentile in the league. Judge also ranks second on the team with 16 stolen bases.
Anthony Rizzo is second on the team with 31 home runs, adding 20 doubles. Giancarlo Stanton is third on the team with 27 home runs and ranks second with 73 RBI. Gleyber Torres hit two home runs last night, bringing his season total to 23, including seven in his last 30 games. Josh Donaldson is tied for the team lead with 27 doubles, adding 15 home runs. Isiah Kiner-Falefa leads the team with 20 stolen bases and has hit 20 doubles. New York leads the league with 236 home runs and 564 walks, tied for seventh with 93 stolen bases.
Jameson Taillon is tonight's starter for New York, with a 13-5 record with a 4.04 ERA and 132 strikeouts in 158 innings. Taillon's 4.5 percent walk rate ranks in the 94th percentile in the league. Taillon's curveball has held batters to a .167 batting average, with 36 strikeouts in 84 at-bats. New York's bullpen ranks third in the league with a 3.05 ERA, striking out 523 batters in 516 innings. Ron Marinaccio has pitched to a 2.25 ERA, with 51 strikeouts in 40 innings. Clay Holmes has pitched to a 2.67 ERA with 20 saves and 64 strikeouts in 60.2 innings. Lefty Wandy Peralta has pitched to a 2.72 ERA in his 56 appearances.
Final Red Sox-Yankees Prediction & Pick
New York needs these wins more so than Boston.
Final Red Sox-Yankees Prediction & Pick: New York -1.5 (+128), over 8 (-114)
