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The Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners will face off on Wednesday afternoon in Seattle. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a White Sox-Mariners prediction and pick, laid out below.
Chicago has endured a brutal season by their preseason standards. Their 68-68 record has placed them in third place in the AL Central, three games behind Cleveland and seven and a half games behind the final AL Wild Card spot. Things will not be easy for this group, as manager Tony La Russa has taken time away from the club to seek medical treatment.
Seattle is enjoying one of their finer seasons in recent memory, with their 77-59 record putting them in second place in the AL West. While they stand almost no chance of catching Houston in the division, Seattle securely owns the second AL Wild Card spot, which would send the team to their first playoff appearance since 2001.
Here are the White Sox-Mariners MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: White Sox-Mariners Odds
Chicago White Sox: +1.5 (-134)
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+112)
Over: 7.5 (+100)
Under: 7.5 (-122)
Why The White Sox Could Cover The Spread
Chicago will send flame-throwing righty Michael Kopech to the mound in this one, with a 3.58 ERA in 23 starts. Kopech has been good, not great, but good this season, and his pitches play down to what you would think with the naked eye. Kopech averages 95 mph on his fastball, and batters have hit just .196 against that pitch. Kopech's slider has yielded the highest opponent batting average against, but that is still just a .221 mark. So, why does Kopech only have 98 strikeouts in 110.2 innings? Kopech's command is less than percisce, with a 12% walk rate that is in the eighth percentile in the league. Still, the results are solid, and Kopech's expected ERA is negligibly above the actual number.
Chicago's bullpen has not been as great, ranking 21st in the league in ERA. Setup man Kendall Graveman is a huge bright spot, with a 2.54 ERA in his 56 appearances. Graveman has been the best part of the bridge to closer Liam Hendriks, also having a solid season. Hendriks has saved 30 games in 48 appearances, registering a 3.38 ERA and 69 strikeouts in 48 innings.
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Chicago's offense was one of the more feared groups entering the season, but injuries have taken their toll. Still, the group is solid when all the pieces are in place. Andrew Vaughn leads the team with 15 home runs, adding 25 doubles and a .284 batting average. Jose Abreu has been the most consistent performer in the lineup, with 14 home runs, 32 doubles, 56 walks, and a .309 batting average, all three of which lead the team. Luis Robert has only played in 92 games but has hit 12 home runs and stolen 11 bases in his limited time. Gavin Sheets has been hot lately, hitting .320 in his last 15 games, and belting 12 home runs on the season. Chicago's .260 team batting average is the third-highest mark in the league.
Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread
Seattle acquired the best starting pitcher to change teams at the trade deadline in Luis Castillo. Castillo has been brilliant since coming over, with a 2.39 ERA in six starts with the club. Overall, Castillo has started 20 games, with a 2.71 ERA and 133 strikeouts in 122.2 innings this season. Castillo's fastball averages 97 mph and has held batters to a ridiculous .131 batting average against, with 64 of his 133 strikeouts coming on the fastball. Castillo has thrown his highest percentage of fastballs since his 2018 season, yet this is the best his fastball has ever performed.
Seattle's bullpen has been great, with a 3.26 ERA that ranks seventh in the league. Erik Swanson has come out of nowhere to pitch to a 1.02 ERA with 56 strikeouts in 44 innings. Swanson's splitter has baffled opponents, holding them to a .100 batting average. Andres Munoz owns a triple-digits fastball, pitching to a 2.73 ERA with 87 strikeouts in his 56 innings. Closer Paul Sewald has reinvented himself in Seattle and has pitched to a 2.41 ERA in 56 innings, registering 18 saves and 64 strikeouts.
Seattle's offense has been reliant on power, tied for tenth with 158 home runs, and is fourth with 492 walks. Eugenio Suarez leads the team with 25 home runs, 76 RBI, 23 doubles, and 69 walks. Suarez is in the 90th percentile with a 12.2% walk rate and has provided great defense at the hot corner. Catcher Cal Raleigh leads the position with 23 home runs, adding 18 doubles and above-average defense. Julio Rodriguez has cemented himself as the front-runner in the Rookie of the Year race, with 23 home runs, 24 stolen bases, a .270 batting average, and some of the best center field defense in the league.
Final White Sox-Mariners Prediction & Pick
Pretty easy to pick Castillo in this one, but it could be a very fun pitching matchup.
Final White Sox-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Seattle -1.5 (+112), under 7.5 (-122)
