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The MLB season continues as the Washington Nationals look to pick up the win on the road in Pittsburgh when they take on the Pirates in the second game of their series on Tuesday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Nationals-Pirates prediction and pick.
Nationals-Pirates Projected Starters
Jake Irvin vs. Mitch Keller
Jake Irvin – (1-1) with a 5.63 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP
Last Start: Irvin didn't factor into the decision Wednesday against the Dodgers after allowing four runs on four hits and three walks in six innings. He struck out seven.
2025 Road Splits: This will be Jake Irvin's first start on the road as he travels to Pittsburgh to take on the Pirates.
Mitch Keller – (1-1) with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP
Last Start: Keller didn't factor into the decision in Wednesday's 2-1 extra-innings win over the Cardinals, allowing four hits and a walk over 7.1 scoreless innings. He struck out six.
2025 Home Splits: Keller bounced back after a rough home season debut with a strong outing against the Cardinals, putting his home numbers at 0-1 record, 5.73 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Pirates Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-200)
Moneyline: +108
Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.5 (+164)
Moneyline: -126
Over: 8 (-105)
Under: 8 (-115)
How To Watch Nationals vs. Pirates
Article Continues Below
Time: 8:10 PM ET/5:10 PM PT
TV: MLB.TV
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Nationals Will Cover The Spread/Win
Jake Irvin’s ability to mix pitches and his mental approach to the game make him a solid candidate to lead the Washington Nationals to victory against Mitch Keller and the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday. Irvin’s arsenal, including a high-velocity fastball and sharp-breaking slider, has proven effective at keeping hitters off balance. While his 5.63 ERA in 2025 suggests inconsistency, he has shown flashes of promise, striking out seven batters in six innings during his last start. Facing a Pirates lineup that ranks last in MLB in batting average (.190) and OPS (.578), Irvin has an opportunity to exploit their offensive struggles.
Mitch Keller, on the other hand, has struggled early this season, posting a 4.24 ERA across three starts. His command issues, allowing six walks over 17 innings, have made him vulnerable to extended innings and big scoring opportunities for opponents. The Nationals’ lineup, bolstered by newcomers Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell, offers a mix of power and patience that could capitalize on Keller’s mistakes. Rising stars like James Wood and CJ Abrams add speed and athleticism, giving Washington an edge in manufacturing runs. If Irvin can limit damage early and the Nationals’ offense continues its upward trend, Washington is well-positioned to secure a win and build momentum in their rebuilding campaign.
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
Mitch Keller’s experience and improved command make him the key to a Pittsburgh Pirates victory over Jake Irvin and the Washington Nationals on Tuesday. Keller has rebounded from a rocky start to 2025 and is coming off two quality starts in his last three outings, showcasing his ability to pitch deep into games. His four-pitch mix, led by a high-spin fastball and sweeping slider, has proven effective at generating weak contact and ground balls, which will be crucial against a Nationals lineup that thrives on putting the ball in play. Backed by a strong defensive infield featuring Ke’Bryan Hayes, Keller is well-positioned to neutralize Washington’s offense.
Offensively, the Pirates have an edge with their dynamic lineup anchored by Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz. Reynolds’ consistency as a table-setter and Cruz’s power-speed combination provide Pittsburgh with multiple ways to score against Irvin, who has struggled with command this season (5.63 ERA). The Pirates’ lineup also benefits from veteran leadership in Andrew McCutchen and timely hitting from Tommy Pham, giving them the depth needed to capitalize on scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s bullpen, led by a rejuvenated David Bednar, has been reliable late in games. If Keller can deliver another steady performance and the Pirates’ offense continues to show flashes of potential, Pittsburgh is poised to secure a win at home and build momentum in the NL Central race.
Final Nationals-Pirates Prediction & Pick
Tuesday’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals will feature an intriguing battle between Mitch Keller and Jake Irvin. Keller, coming off a dominant outing against the Cardinals where he pitched 7.1 scoreless innings with six strikeouts, has shown flashes of brilliance this season. His ability to generate ground balls and limit hard contact gives Pittsburgh an edge against Washington’s inconsistent offense. Meanwhile, Irvin has struggled with a 5.63 ERA, leaving him vulnerable to Pittsburgh’s power hitters like Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz. Expect Keller’s efficiency and the Pirates’ timely hitting to lead them to a home victory.
Final Nationals-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates (-126), Over 8 (-105)
