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The MLB season continues as the Washington Nationals look to pick up the win on the road in Pittsburgh when they take on the Pirates in their series finale on Thursday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Nationals-Pirates prediction and pick.
Nationals-Pirates Projected Starters
Trevor Williams vs. Andrew Heaney
Trevor Williams – (1-1) with a 7.36 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP
Last Start: Williams came away with the loss against the Marlins on Saturday. He gave up six runs on eight hits and one walk while striking out two across 4.2 innings.
2025 Road Splits: Williams has had a rough start to the season on the road, where he is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in two starts.
Andrew Heaney – (0-1) with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP
Last Start: Heaney took the loss Saturday against the Reds, allowing four runs on three hits and two walks over six innings. He struck out six.
2025 Home Splits: In Heaney's lone start at home, he gave up one earned run on five hits while striking out 10 in seven innings against the Yankees.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Pirates Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-200)
Moneyline: +104
Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.5 (+164)
Moneyline: -122
Article Continues Below
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
How To Watch Nationals vs. Pirates
Time: 12:35 PM ET/9:35 AM PT
TV: MLB.TV
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Nationals Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Washington Nationals are primed to take down Andrew Heaney and the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday, and the reasons go beyond the surface-level stats. While Trevor Williams’ 7.36 ERA this April might raise eyebrows, he’s shown the ability to grind through tough innings and keep his team in games, as evidenced by his five-inning, three-run win over Arizona and his knack for limiting walks. Williams’ recent history, 17 straight starts allowing three runs or fewer, tying a franchise record, suggests he’s more reliable than his current numbers indicate. The Nationals’ offense, meanwhile, ranks in the top half of MLB in runs per game and home runs, with emerging power from James Wood and steady production from Nathaniel Lowe, giving Williams the run support he needs to outlast a Pirates lineup that sits near the bottom of the league in batting average and home runs.
On the other side, Andrew Heaney has been sharp to start the season, posting a 3.00 ERA with 12 strikeouts in 12 innings. However, Heaney’s career has been defined by inconsistency, and his recent dominance came with a bit of luck and heavy reliance on secondary pitches—something the Nationals’ right-handed bats are well-equipped to counter. The Pirates’ offense has struggled mightily, averaging just 3.3 runs per game and hitting a paltry .195 as a team, making it difficult for them to capitalize even if Heaney delivers another quality start. With the Nationals’ offense heating up and Williams’ ability to limit damage, Washington is well-positioned to edge out Pittsburgh in a tightly contested matchup.
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
Andrew Heaney and the Pittsburgh Pirates are in a strong position to outduel Trevor Williams and the Washington Nationals on Thursday, thanks to Heaney’s remarkable early-season form and a recent surge in team momentum. Heaney has been lights-out through his first three starts for Pittsburgh, posting a 3.00 ERA, a stellar 0.89 WHIP, and an 18:4 K:BB ratio over 18 innings. His latest outing was particularly dominant, striking out 10 over seven innings against the Yankees, showcasing his ability to overpower lineups and deliver deep into games. This consistency gives the Pirates a clear edge on the mound, especially against a Nationals lineup that, while featuring some power, has struggled with consistency and run production in recent matchups.
The Pirates’ offense, though not explosive, is showing signs of life with contributions from Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who leads the team with a .264 average. Pittsburgh has also historically fared well against Washington, winning the season series in each of the last three years and recently routing the Nationals 10-3 to snap a losing streak. On the other side, Trevor Williams has struggled mightily, posting a 7.36 ERA over his last three starts while allowing 23 hits in just 14.2 innings. With Heaney dealing and the Pirates’ bullpen ranking among the league’s best, Pittsburgh is well-equipped to capitalize on Williams’ struggles and secure another home victory in this series.
Final Nationals-Pirates Prediction & Pick
Andrew Heaney and the Pirates have the edge over Trevor Williams and the Nationals in Thursday’s matchup at PNC Park. Heaney has been sharp to start 2025, posting a 3.00 ERA with 18 strikeouts and a stellar 0.89 WHIP across 18 innings, while mixing his pitches to keep hitters off balance. The Pirates, slight favorites by oddsmakers, should capitalize on Williams’ recent struggles and home-field advantage, edging out the Nationals in a close contest. Expect a tight, low-scoring game.
Final Nationals-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-122), Over 8 (-110)
